Monday, April 24, 2017, 4:55 PM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCAR 241856
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
256 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push across the north tonight as a weak
front dissipates along the coast. Low pressure will approach
from the south Tuesday into Wednesday. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will slide into Quebec tonight as a weak cold
front stalls and then dissipates near the coast. Dry, tranquil
air and mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to fall well
into the 20s over the north. Lows Downeast will be in the 30s. 
Clouds will then increase from south to north on Tuesday ahead 
of low pressure approaching from the southwest. A bit of light 
rain may spread into the Downeast region late in the afternoon. 
The north should remain dry all day with only a slight chance 
for some spotty light rain by sundown. Highs Tuesday are 
expected to be in the low to mid 50s across the region. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong high pressure will pass to the north of the region
Tuesday Night. Low pressure will develop over the mid Atlantic
States Wednesday then move to the north during the day. This
system is expected to produce rain across the state during the
day Wednesday with the highest amounts of rainfall across the
coast and interior Downeast. The low will then weaken as it move
off to the east Wednesday Night and Thursday. Will use a model
consensus of the ECMWF, GFS, and NAM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will approach from the west Thursday Night and 
cross the region late Friday. This system is expected to result 
in showers for Friday into Saturday. High pressure will approach
from the northwest Sunday. Intense low pressure system will 
move northward into the Great Lakes Monday producing over- 
running precipitation Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight
and Tuesday, but may lower to MVFR at the end of the day
Downeast as some rain and lower clouds begin to move in. 

SHORT TERM: Expect IFR/MVFR conditions Wednesday and Thursday. 
MVFR/VFR conditions are expected Friday and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA tonight
and Tuesday. However, a few wind gusts may approach 25 kt in
increasing easterly winds over the offshore waters south of
Hancock County late Tuesday as low pressure approaches. 

SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS for sustained winds. For waves:
Expect a strong southerly fetch to develop off the Mid Atlantic
States Tuesday Night and extend well to the east into the
Atlantic as low pressure develops off the east coast. This fetch
will extend northward into the Gulf of Maine Wednesday and
persist into Thursday. Wave heights are expected to build to a
maximum of 9 feet/10 seconds Wednesday Night. The southeasterly
fetch will end on Thursday as winds shift, however long period
swell is expected to persist into Saturday due to the long
length of the fetch area. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction
System (NWPS) to populate grids through Thursday then transition
to the Wave Watch III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 9 AM EDT Thursday 
     for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Bloomer/Mignone
Marine...Bloomer/Mignone

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