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Area Forecast Discussion
||Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCAR 291353
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
953 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017
The region will remain in an unsettled weather pattern through
the weekend. Occasional showers and thunderstorms can be
expected through Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
940 am update...
An upper disturbance will cross the region through early
afternoon. A few very light showers associated with this
disturbance are crossing northern areas this morning. Expect
partly sunny skies across the region this afternoon. Still
couldn't rule out a brief shower or isolated thunderstorm
today. Highs will range from the lower 70s north and mid to
upper 70s down east. However, it will be cooler along the
Prev discussion blo...
Sfc low currently located ovr sern end of Lk Superior wl mv
east today and drag its wmfnt into srn Maine by the end of the
period. Overrunning wl lkly mv into far wrn zones this evng. Not
expecting much in the way of thunder aft 00z tonight as airmass
stabilizes. Airmass wl once again destabilize aft 06z tonight
with elevated convection progged acrs cntrl and srn zones. Nrn
zones wl lkly see just showers thru the bulk of the ovrngt.
Patchy fog wl dvlp ovr the region late tonight and into the mrng
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather pattern with concern for heavy rain Friday into
the weekend. A nearly stationary surface front will be
positioned somewhere over our forecast area with several upper
level systems moving through from west to east. Problem is,
there is a lot of model disagreement on where the front sets up
Friday. All models generally lift the front north Friday night
through Saturday night, but the speed of the front's
progression north is also quite uncertain. This is important
because the main focus for the heaviest rain will be along the
front, with the potential for training convection along the
front. Kept the forecast fairly broadbrushed for now with
generally 60 to 80 percent precip chances Friday into Saturday
night with mention of heavy rain during this period. Don't think
that any of the larger rivers have any threat of flooding, but
depending on how things set up, smaller to middle sized streams
could have issues. We just don't have any confidence yet in
saying where in the forecast area this will occur. Fog will be a
concern Friday night onward not only near the coast, but also
inland areas nighttime hours, thanks to the moist airmass.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Still a good shot at showers and storms Sunday, then weather
pattern gradually dries out from the 4th into midweek. Still
could be scattered showers for the 4th, but doesn't look like a
washout. Small shot at diurnal convection Tuesday and Wednesday,
but nothing like the Friday to Sunday period. Temperatures close
to average in the extended period.
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: After MVFR -shras move thru this morning btwn 12z
and 14z, VFR will return to HUL, PQI and CAR. VFR after 14z
today at FVE, CAR and PQI. HUL will be mainly VFR this afternoon
before diminishing to MVFR toward 09z tonight. Southern
terminals will see restrictions lower to IFR after 06z in -shra
and low clouds.
SHORT TERM: MVFR to VFR Friday, but deteriorating to IFR to LIFR
Friday night and persisting into Saturday night. The worst
conditions will be near the coast, but at least IFR is likely
well inland also. Some improvement to MVFR to VFR ceilings
Sunday into Monday.
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels until
very late tonight, when seas will approach 5 feet after midnight
in southerly swell. Visibilities will be reduced in fog late
SHORT TERM: Seas will be in the 3 to 6 foot range Friday into
early next week. Winds will generally be a bit below small craft
levels, though can't rule out winds briefly reaching small craft
criteria from time to time. Flow will be onshore through Monday,
with a good shot at marine fog Friday through Monday.