Wednesday, September 19, 2018, 2:42 PM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCAR 191533
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1133 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today and Thursday and
will crest over the area Thursday evening. A strong area of low
pressure will pass to the northwest of the area Friday bringing
wind to the area. A strong cold front will cross the area Friday
night bringing a much cooler air mass to the region Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:30 AM Update...Radar and satellite imagery is showing some 
drizzle persisting in the stratus over central and northwestern 
areas so added patchy drizzle through early afternoon in these
areas. Otherwise, the low overcast persists and the air remains
cool. 

Previous discussion:
Cloudy and cool today and tonight. A low level northeast flow 
will continue with stratocu today into tonight. The model 
soundings are nearly saturated across the north from 950-700H 
with a smaller saturated layer Down East where there could be a 
brief peak or two of sun in a few spots this afternoon. 
Temperatures today will be about 5 to 10 degrees below average 
and will range from the low to mid 50s in the far north to the 
l/m 60s Down East. Clouds may break up a bit tonight across the 
southern half of the FA with stratocu hanging tough in the north
and and into the central highlands. A passing shower is 
possible today into tonight, but much of the time will be dry. 
Lows tonight will be mostly in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure overhead for Thursday, but low clouds will be slow
to erode in many areas. Mostly cloudy with light winds and
seasonably cool with highs around 60. 

High pressure moves east Thursday night as the next system
already begins to approach from the west. A rapidly
strengthening area of low pressure will track from the Great
Lakes to Labrador Thursday night to Friday night. As it does so,
look for a warm front crossing our area during the day Friday
with a period of rain mainly in the north. We enter the warm
sector late Friday into Friday evening, then a cold front moves
through overnight with another shot of rain. Main concern with
the system is winds, especially late Friday into Friday evening
in the warm sector. Winds aloft a couple thousand feet off the
ground are quite strong topping out at 70 to 75 knots over
Northern Maine. However, low level lapse rates are not favorable
for mixing the strongest winds to the surface. Possible
exception is with the cold front passage Friday night. Think
that surface gusts to 40 mph in the north are a possibility,
with gusts 25 to 35 mph Downeast. Any higher terrain will have
stronger winds as well. An important factor concerning impacts is
that all the leaves are still on the trees, which makes it 
easier to see tree damage with winds that aren't terribly 
strong. One other interesting factor with this system is that we
expect high temperatures Friday to come after dark just ahead of
the cold front rather than during the day Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Seasonably cool and dry Saturday and Saturday night. Some models
have a weak system perhaps impacting mainly Northern Maine
either Sunday or Monday, but not enough confidence in it to go
any more than 20 percent precip chances. Remaining seasonably 
cool into Monday. Next weather system with rain looks to come 
Tuesday or Wednesday, though models disagree a fair amount on 
its timing.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Predominately MVFR today and tonight, but with areas
with IFR ceilings, especially this morning. There is the
potential that the ceilings may improve to VFR tonight at the 
Down East terminals.

SHORT TERM: Mix of MVFR and VFR to start the day Thursday, with
most places becoming VFR by day's end. Mostly VFR Thursday
night, but MVFR/IFR developing Friday and persisting Friday
night as a weather system crosses the area. Windy with low level
wind shear as well. System exits for the weekend with generally
VFR over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Strong weather system will bring small craft 
conditions Friday/Friday night, and can't rule out gale. Seas 
building to 5 to 9 feet Friday night. Conditions improving to
below small craft levels by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/MCB
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...CB/Foisy
Marine...CB/Foisy

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