Monday, July 23, 2018, 2:02 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
||Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCAR 221925
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
325 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018
Low pressure will remain to the southwest to the region
tonight. Unsettled weather and humid conditions will continue
through next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong high pressure will remain over the Atlantic well to the
east of New England tonight and Monday. At the same time low
pressure will persist to the southwest of the region. High
pressure continues to ridge across eastern and northern Maine,
so expect rain to be slow to move into these areas. Showers are
expected to over spread the entire region by later this evening.
Showers are expected to continue Monday however thunder storms
appear unlikely at this time.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Anomalous mid-level 500mb ridge builds off the coast of the
Canadian Maritimes Monday night into Tuesday. This will create
relativity stable mid-level lapse rates, which will cap shower
and thunderstorm activity for most of the region. There will
still be a persistent southerly moist onshore flow which will a
muggy airmass in place. The difficult part of the forecast will
be how deep the marine layer is on the coast. Have introduced
the chance for some drizzle on the coast, especially after
midnight to early in the morning. Further inland morning low
level stratus below 1000ft and areas of fog will be likely which
should burn off by the afternoon allowing temperatures to reach
the low 80s. This will cause it to be muggy during both Tuesday
and Wednesday afternoon. Have limited rain threats mostly across
the Northwoods on Tuesday. Shower and isolated thunderstorm
chances begin to creep back up on Wednesday but still some
uncertainty in the model guidance on coverage and how far east
in the CWA this threat spreads. Took a blend approach, but it is
possible that we may have trend drier on this forecast.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Canadian Maritime 500mb ridge begins to weaken and move further
east in response to a Ohio river short wave trough moving
towards Maine late Wednesday night into Thursday. Thursday
continues to look like the best chance for widespread rain with
all guidance in agreement on the shortwave trough and weak
surface boundary pushing through the state. If there is going to
be a chance for locally heavy rain, Thursday is looking like the
highest threat day and will have to be watched. By Friday most
guidance has a slow moving long wave trough over the Great Lakes
region with another cold front expected to move through the
area, but timing differences still exist. Have kept the chance
for showers and slight chance thunderstorms going straight into
the weekend due to model spread making it difficult to resolve
actual timing of features. Looks like it could be cooler and
briefly drier by the end of the weekend at this point.
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR/MVFR conditions on tonight and Monday.
SHORT TERM: LIFR conditions will be the norm at night and during
the early morning hours at KBHB/KBGR due to a persistent marine
layer on Tuesday and Wednesday. Cold front with rain showers and
thunderstorms is possible on Thursday for all TAF terminals. Fog
could also be possible during the early morning hours for the
northern TAF terminals, before lifting by mid-morning.
NEAR TERM: For winds: Will use a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs
to initialize the grids and will reduce model wind speed by 10
percent to adjust to suppression of wind due to cold sea
surface temperature in the low 50s stabilizing the lower
boundary layer. For Waves: Currently wind wave is running under
1 foot under light winds and the primary wave system is longer
period southerly swell (2-3 feet/7-8 seconds). Expect southerly
swell to remain the primary wave system through Monday, building
to around 5-6 feet/8-9 seconds early Monday then subsiding
later in the day into the evening. Will use NWPS to initialize
waves then reduce wave heights by 1 foot into this evening to
adjust for model bias. Will issue an SCA for outer waters for
seas later tonight. Total Water Level: Will keep the Base Tide
Anomaly along the coast at +0.10 through the period. Adjustments
made for low tide anomaly in Bangor still look good.
SHORT TERM: Seas will generally remain around 3-4 feet on
Tuesday and Wednesday, before building to SCA conditions by
Thursday again. Periods of locally dense fog are also possible
through this period.