Monday, August 21, 2017, 8:03 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCAR 211010
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
610 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build south of the area today. Low pressure 
will approach from the west on Tuesday. The low will track to 
our north Tuesday night into Wednesday as it brings a cold 
front across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
605 am update...
Mild early morning across the forecast area with current  
temperatures running around 60 degrees. Just minor tweaks made 
to hourly temps/dew points. Only significant change was to add
patchy fog the northern areas tonight, specifically where we 
are expecting the possibility of isolated evening showers and 
thunderstorms. 

previous discussion
A southwest flow around high pressure to our south will transport
unseasonably warm air across northern and down east Maine 
today. Expect mainly sunny skies across the region. H925 
temperatures are forecast to reach around +22C yielding high 
temperatures in the low to mid 80s across much of the area away 
from the immediate coast.

A warm and humid night can be expected across the region tonight
as high pressure remains to our south. A cold front will
approach far northern Maine from Quebec this evening. The front
will stall just north of the region overnight. Expect partly 
cloudy skies across northern areas along with an isolated 
thunderstorm this evening and mainly clear skies down east. 
Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tue will be ptly to msly sunny, very warm, and humid. Aftwrds 
cumuliform cldnss will increase in the aftn across the N with 
late day shwrs and tstms spcly across the NW as a cold front 
from QB supported by a sig s/wv alf apchs. Best support of shwrs
and tstms will be Tue ngt for most of the Rgn as the front 
begins to cross and the s/wv alf pivots ENE just N of the Rgn. 
Will mention hvy rn and gusty winds as linear tstm segments 
appear likely Tue ngt with good frontal forcing and elevated
CAPE, with very hi fzg lvls making hail unlikely. Many, but not
all lctns could experience an inch or more of rnfl before shwrs
exit the FA Wed morn. In the wake of the cold front Wed aftn 
and ngt, cooler and drier air from cntrl Can will ovrsprd the 
Rgn.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cannot rule out isold day tm shwrs with weak s/wvs periodically
crossing spcly Nrn ptns of the Rgn, otherwise, ptly cldy skies 
by day and msly clr skies by ngt is xpctd this late week into
next weekend with both cooler hi and low temps compared to the
near and erly short term pds.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR conditions xpctd all TAF sites 
Tue...then clgs/vsbys lowering to MVFR and then IFR Tue ngt into
Wed morn in shwrs, tstms, and fog. All TAF sites should then 
improve back to VFR behind a cold front Wed aftn and cont so
thru the late week.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain advisory levels through
tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns initially, but SW winds and wvs
could apch and possibly exceed SCA thresholds Tue ngt into Wed
morn just ahead of a cold front. In addition, marine fog could
become an issue Tue ngt into Wed morn as moist tropical air
streams Nwrd across cold Gulf of ME waters. Aftwrds, winds, seas
and fog should diminish Wed aftn and ngt as winds become 
offshore.

Went sig blo WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts Tue ngt into Wed
morn given hi sfc wind bias input into this guidance in this
flow regime this tm of season. Otherwise, we kept within 80 to
90 percent of the guidance for the rest of the fcst. Primary wv
pds will msly in the 5 to 7 sec range.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Duda/VJN
Marine...Duda/VJN

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