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Area Forecast Discussion
||Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCAR 210814
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
414 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019
A warm front and bring warmer and humid air to the region for
today. A cold front will cross the region on Monday. Low
pressure will approach from the south Tuesday and from the
west on Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The heaviest rain is done. However, we do still have another
slug of rain moving into Downeast as of 4am, and this rain will
spread north through the morning. Looking for another quarter
to third of an inch of rain Downeast, with around a tenth of an
inch in the north. A lot of low clouds and fog this morning with
moist onshore flow. Today's temperatures for coastal Downeast
will be similar as yesterday, but it'll be quite a bit warmer
from Bangor north as the warm, muggy airmass heads to Northern
Maine. Low to mid 60s for high temperatures are expected with
dewpoints quite high in the low to mid 50s. This will lead to a
lot of snowpack loss where snow still exists in the north,
raising the river levels more. Not expecting many breaks in the
clouds today. If there are any breaks, they will mainly be over
the North Woods.
Continued mostly cloudy and gloomy tonight, though with only
scattered showers as most of the rain will be shunted off to
the east of the area. Flow gradually shifts from onshore to
offshore tonight as a new area of low pressure approaches from
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Models indicate a weak cold front slowly crossing the Rgn from
Ern QB on Mon. This should lift any morng fog with any shwrs
remaining msly across Ern and Downeast ptns of the FA.
Whats left of sfc and upper low pres from the mid atlc states
could bring more rnfl upwards to 0.25 to 0.50 inches again to
spcly Ern and Downeast areas Tue. A brief break between systems
will occur Tue ngt, with skies remaining cldy with Erly
component sfc winds.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Nearly all of the long range models then show a a vigorous s/wv
from the S/Cntrl Can - Nrn great lks Rgn apchg Wed with steady
rn likely Wed into Wed eve. It should be noted that different
long range models vary somewhat with the strength and tmg of
this event, so confidence with QPF amts is low, and precip type
if the event begins late Tue ngt or xtnds later into Wed ngt
with perhaps cold enough air for wet sn across the Nrn,
particularly higher trrn. For now, we do not play up much in sn
category, taking a blend of long range models for QPF and
capping max PoPs in the likely range for this event.
Conditions should improve somewhat on Thu with below avg temps
with other follow-up s/wvs from the upper great lks possibly
bring additional shwrs to the FA Fri into Sat with cont's cool
and unsettled conditions.
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR early this morning in low clouds and fog.
Only minor improvement today for KBGR and KBHB today as the
moist onshore flow persists. A bit more improvement from KHUL
north to KFVE, where ceilings should rise to near the MVFR/VFR
threshold this afternoon. Tonight, expect mainly MVFR in the
north and IFR Downeast.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: Predominately MVFR clgs will prevail for our
TAF sites with ocnl IFR clgs and/or vsbys with more organized
NEAR TERM: Small craft seas persist through tonight with winds
remaining below small craft levels.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: Can't rule out SCA seas Mon morn, otherwise
no hdlns anticipated durg these ptns of the fcst. Marine fog
should dissipate in the aftn as sfc winds become Nrly component
ovr time. Kept close to a WW3/NWPS guidance blend for fcst wv
Warmer temperatures today continue to put hydro issues at the
forefront of area weather concerns with melting of remaining
snow pack across the N. There are several point river flood
warnings in effect throughout the area. In terms of ice jams,
the focus remains on the Aroostook River around Washburn where
the ice jam released just before midnight and is flooding some
areas downriver toward Presque Isle. On the Saint John River,
the only remaining larger scale ice jam area known is near Saint
Francis and does not appear to be a significant enough threat
to prompt any warnings or advisories at this time.
ME...Flood Watch through Monday evening for MEZ001>006-010-011-015-
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Monday
morning for ANZ050-051.