Sunday, December 17, 2017, 10:09 PM EST
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KPBZ 180118
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
818 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer, but damp weather can be expected through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
The late eve update featured further adjustments to POPs as the
rain area has diminished with ewd progress of the supporting 
shortwave. The chance for measurable precip will continue to
diminish and temperature is expected to remain above freezing 
for all areas. Given expected temperature/dewpoint spreads, 
have delayed, and restricted the drizzle mention to areas in 
vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary, i.e. areas north of 
Pittsburgh.

Previous...
An early eve update was issued to adjust hourly trends of 
temperature and precipitation based on the radar, obs, and 
consensus short guidance.

Light rain associated with a weakening upper level shortwave 
will spread across the region through this evening. For the most
part, temperatures remain above freezing, with marginal 
readings along the I 80 corridor where minimal precip is 
anticipated. No headline is thus anticipated.

Cloud cover and light precip chances will support very little 
diurnal temperature change for tonight and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Zonal flow is maintained, though weak ripples in the upper level
pattern may be enough to generate additional light precip. Have
cut back PoPs significantly since forcing remains weak and much
of the moisture remains under about 2kft. 

Strengthening warm advection Tuesday ahead of a slightly more
amplified wave will support above average temperature with
values closer to normal in cold advection/northwest flow.
Building surface ridge should lend to little more than cloud
cover wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Zonal flow returns Thursday with some amplification in the upper
level pattern as wave ejects into the Plains. This will be the 
next notable system progged to approach late in the period, with
some differences between the guidance in timing. Stayed close 
to the Superblend for the end of the week with some moderation 
in warm advection to above average temperature by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictions are anticipated into Monday as light rain and
drizzle will prevail under an inversion trapped over the 
region. Expect IFR with low stratus by Monday morning in
vicinity of the frontal boundary draped near the I 80 corridor.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely through Tuesday, as abundant low-level 
moisture remains trapped under the inversion.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
PBZ-10171

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