Thursday, July 19, 2018, 1:26 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
||Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCTP 190516
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
116 AM EDT Thu Jul 19 2018
Dry and pleasant weather will continue through late week. An
extended period of wet conditions is expected to begin this
weekend and last into the end of July.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Skies have cleared across the region and temperatures are on
track to fall through the 60s into the 50s over the next few
hours. Ultimately, the usually colder locations in the northern
tier will drop into the low 40s, approaching near-record min
temps for mid July. The record low at Bradford is 40 degrees set
in 1965. Air/water spreads exceeding 20 degrees should result
in radiational fog in the northern river valleys.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
High pressure centered over central PA Thursday morning will
migrate eastward off the New England coast by Friday morning.
Look for another comfortable and pleasant day with low humidity
and plenty of sunshine. Dewpoints/humidity should start to
creep upward into Friday behind a moist, southeasterly low
level flow. This should help to prop-up min temps a few to
several degrees with upslope low clouds possibly reaching the
southern tier by Friday morning.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet start to the extended Friday with dry weather continuing,
though humidity begins to creep back up as pattern change
brings return of moist southerly flow. By the weekend, ridge
slides off the East Coast as inverted trough settles over the
Ohio Valley- channeling moisture northward. A compact wave of
low pressure forms near the Carolinas and slides northward
toward NJ by Sat night - enhancing rain/convection chances
further. Will need to keep an eye on this feature as could focus
heavier rains over eastern portions of the state.
After that passes by, filling upper low centered off to the west
will keep mention of daily scattered convection in the forecast
through much of the week as tropical feel persists. An
approaching cold front for late week will again enhance precip
Temperatures will be close to normal during the day and above
average overnight with the moisture and cloud cover.
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Been looking the data over for the 06Z TAFS.
Will keep the fcst close to what was issued earlier for fog, but
think it will be very limited. Earlier shift did cut back on it
Also a small patch of clds to the south, AOO has been BKN to OVC
all evening, but at least these are VFR CIGS.
Have to watch south to southeast flow late Thursday night and
Friday for lower clds to work in from the south, but at this
point not seeing this show up.
Earlier discussion below.
High pressure will keep mainly VFR conditions across the region
through Friday. The exception will be areas of morning valley
fog, mainly along the rivers. Have adjusted the 03z TAF updates
to cut back a bit on the severity of the fog, and also delayed
the onset based on current observations and trends.
Unsettled weather returns Saturday, and continues into early
next week, with occasional showers and scattered thunderstorms.
Best window for the most widespread rain and thunderstorms would
be sunday afternoon into early Monday.
Fri...Morning valley fog, otherwise VFR.
Sat-Mon...Occasional SHRA/TSRA with associated MVFR/IFR