Sunday, July 22, 2018, 2:46 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCTP 220620

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
220 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

The region will stay under a moist and unsettled weather pattern
for the next several days. Rainfall this morning will give way
to scattered showers this afternoon. A good chance of showers
and a few thunderstorms will remain in the forecast into


Seeing some impressive rainfall totals across southern counties
with some areas of Adams and Franklin Counties closing in on 5
inches of rain. Fortunately the area had been quite dry for the
last several weeks and todays rain has been spread out over 
many hours. That said there will be some minor flooding to 
contend with through the morning hours in areas that received 
the heaviest rains. This large area of rain is moving slowly 
northwest this morning with some slow decrease in intensity. 
This rain will diminish and move out of the area this morning 
but the area will remain under a moist southerly flow. More 
showers are expected again this afternoon. Temperatures will run
a few degrees below average with the moist conditions and thick
cloud cover.


Humid weather pattern tonight as temperatures won't fall to much
off the days highs. Will keep the chance of showers in the
forecast with several disturbances in the flow pivoting through
the area. Little change on Monday with more showers and a chance
of thunderstorms in the afternoon.  


By late Monday, upper trough will be filling off to our west. 
Its position will remain nearly stationary or even retrograde a 
little as strong broad ridge forms over the western U.S. For PA,
long fetch moist southerly low-level flow continues for much of
the week, with upper flow turning more SW/W. Not much to 
inhibit daily convection, so the quite unsettled pattern will 
continue as plenty of clouds abound.

Best daily chances for tstorms shifts to western/central 
sections early in the week (as ridge briefly edges in from the
east) before precip shifts eastward Thu as a cold frontal 
boundary finally pushes across the state. The weekend looks

Though it will be quite muggy, temperatures will be at or
slightly below below normal much of the week.


Precipitation has overspread all airfield sites as of this
evening. Current radar and short term high resolution models
indicate pockets of moderate rain to move from southeast to
northwest over the next 6-8 hours. 

Models indicate a heavy band of rain moving north from KMDT-
KUNV-KBFD from 05Z-09Z. Then a quick transition to light rain
and then dry weather around 12Z.  

By the end of the forecast period, scattered convection will 
develop but just put in VCTS for now as the timing and exact 
location of airfield effects is too far out to be more specific.


Mon-Wed...Frequent showers/isolated T'storms with associated 
MVFR/IFR restrictions.


Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ019-


SHORT TERM...Ross/Steinbugl

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