Monday, September 25, 2017, 5:53 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS63 KOAX 250829

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
329 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Slow-moving front and associated precipitation have arrived. 
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates an upper-level low 
centered near the UT-WY border, with upper-level ridging dominating 
the eastern half of the CONUS (along with Maria centered well off 
the coast of the Carolinas). A 110kt upper-level jet streak was 
noted ahead of the trough from western NE into the central Dakotas. 
An 850mb high was centered around Lake Erie, with an ill-defined 
trough from around western ON toward CO/NM. A front was evident from 
the weak low in western ON through eastern SD and northeast to 
central NE, then toward western KS and eastern NM. A surface low was 
centered in western ON, with a secondary low in northeast NM, and a 
front between through MN to western IA to southeast NE through KS 
toward the secondary low. 

Main forecast concern is persistent rain and isolated thunderstorms 
today and tonight, tapering off tonight into Wednesday. Western US 
low will eject northeastward through the Dakotas through Tuesday, 
leaving troughing in the southwestern US. Front will linger through 
today and tonight, with a distinct band of mid-level frontogenesis 
and instability above the frontogenetic layer lingering through 
Tuesday morning as it slowly slides eastward through the area. In 
short, persistent forcing for ascent should continue to drive waves 
of rain through Tuesday, tapering from northwest to southeast 
through the day. MUCAPE is weak, but there is enough to support at 
least an isolated embedded thunderstorm today and perhaps tonight. 
By Tuesday, instability is virtually nil, and thunder threat 
likewise should be nil. Temperatures today will change little from 
morning readings, but did give a slight bump in the afternoon. 
Temperatures on Tuesday will remain cool, with highs in the 60s.

In wake of the slow-moving system, high pressure will linger for 
several days as an upper-level ridge lingers between the ejecting 
low/trough and the western US low, but temperatures will remain on 
the cool side as 850mb temperatures linger in the upper single 
digits to low teens. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Cooler temperatures will continue through next weekend, with an 
upper-level trough digging into the Great Lakes by late week and 
providing a reinforcing push of cooler air into the north central 
US. As the surface ridge slowly slides eastward, return flow should 
bring moisture back into the central Plains over the weekend, along 
with chances for showers and thunderstorms as the western US trough 
slowly emerges toward the Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

KOFK should be in MVFR or IFR ceilings much of the period, with
some lower visibility at times with SHRA or TSRA. Conditions
should deteriorate at KLNK and KOMA and north or northwest winds 
bring cool and moisture air into the area. Ceilings should become 
MVFR the next few hours and then be MVFR to IFR most of the rest 
of the period with SHRA and TSRA. Winds will remain mainly from 
the north or northwest at 5 to 12 knots. 





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