Monday, December 18, 2017, 3:32 PM EST
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Area Forecast Discussion
||Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS64 KLIX 181000
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
400 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017
No major changes to the forecast this morning. Widespread fog is
being observed this morning as the Dense Fog Advisory continues
through 9 AM this morning. The fog should slowly lift as showers
and maybe a few thunderstorms pass through the area today. Fog
should develop again tonight. The stalled boundary over the area
today will serve as the focus for precipitation. This boundary
will slowly push northward and by Tuesday the axis for shower as
storm development will be north of the area. The next shortwave
moves through the area early Wednesday morning. This wave could be
a little more potent. There is a chance for a few strong storms
Tuesday night into Wednesday as this system moves through.
Temperatures will be above normal.
We should be between systems Thursday which means a dry Thursday...and
guidance then also points to another major system in the region
this weekend. Still a lot of uncertainty going into the Christmas
holiday regarding the timing and strength of the next cold front.
Guidance has had a tough time determining if we will be warm or
cold for this system. That has a bearing on what kind of weather
we can expect obviously. With that being said have maintained a
blend in the latter part of the forecast period due to the lack of
confidence in the long range forecast. 13/MH
Ceilings and visibilities are quite varied across the
P/CWA...ranging from VFR to VLIFR. This will continue to be the case
through the night and into the early/mid morning hours before some
improvement Monday afternoon. Increasing shower activity to the
southwest is forecast to spread across portions of the forecast area
overnight and early Monday. This activity will likely help to
disperse the fog to some degree. The threat of showers will continue
through the day Monday. Fog is expected to redevelop Monday night. 1
The stalled frontal boundary remains north of the
coastal waters. As prev forecaster mentioned the pressure gradient
has relaxed and wind speeds have dropped down to 10 to 15 knots over
coastal waters. Because the front is north of the region winds
remain out of the south. Fog has been a fickle thing tonight. Yes
the onshore flow and very warm moist air over the cool near-shore
waters did initially lead to sea fog but as the evening and overnight
hours progressed the fog moved inland and actually left the near
shore waters. Will leave the marine dense fog adv in effect but may
have to cancel it early this morning if fog does not move back into
this area. Fog is favorable again tonight into Tuesday morning.
Next surface low is expected to traverse the Lower MS Valley Tuesday
night and early Wednesday which will bring another weak cold front
and likely stalling it over the region Wednesday as well before
lifting north on Thursday. One more cold front is expected to
approach the region this weekend but it remains to be seen if this
will be another weak one stalling near the area or much stronger
pushing well into the Gulf. /CAB/
DSS code: Blue.
Activities: Dense/Marine Dense Fog Advs.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 68 61 75 63 / 60 20 30 60
BTR 71 62 76 64 / 60 20 30 60
ASD 72 61 75 65 / 60 10 30 50
MSY 72 62 76 65 / 60 10 30 60
GPT 69 61 72 65 / 70 10 30 50
PQL 71 59 74 64 / 70 10 30 50
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ034>037-
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-532-
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ068>071-
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-534-