Saturday, September 22, 2018, 3:39 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS64 KLIX 211931
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
231 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure off the New Jersey coast extends southwestward into
the western Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure over western Quebec has a
cold front through the lower Ohio River Valley into west Texas.
Aloft, ridging along the Carolina coast with a weak low over the
Florida Peninsula. Locally, scattered showers and a few 
thunderstorms are moving northwestward across the area. 
Temperatures generally getting into the lower 90s before showers 
cool things off somewhat. Most dew points in the lower and middle 
70s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Florida upper low will move westward across the Gulf of Mexico
through the weekend. Impulses moving through the northern stream
at 500 mb will gradually push the front currently to our northwest
toward the area, but unlikely that the front makes much progress
into the area through Monday. Expect a persistent pattern of
offshore scattered showers and storms late at night transitioning
to over land by late morning/early afternoon each day. Land based
convection should primarily die out around sunset. Rain chances
generally in the 40-60 percent range each day and 20-30 for the
overnight period. Above normal temperature trends to continue with
highs near 90 and lows in the 70s. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

Upper troughing will continue to erode the ridging next week. This
will gradually allow the frontal boundary to move into the area,
but we never experience a complete frontal passage until sometime
next weekend, if that soon. Not much change from the numbers in
the short range portion of the forecast regarding precipitation
chances. Continued to run with temperatures slightly warmer than
the blended numbers. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions to prevail all terminals outside of limited 
convection driven mainly by lake and gulf breeze interactions. 
Frontal zone in the middle Plains states with abundant tropical 
moisture tap from the Pacific is expected to stall well north of the 
forecast area, but should provide forcing to increase convection 
Saturday, generally after 15Z. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...

Really flat pressure gradient over much of the gulf will maintain 
light winds and low seas through the entire forecast period. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None. 
Activities: None. 
   
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend 
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high 
         visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or 
         advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or 
         excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events; 
         HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or 
         excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of 
         National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  91  72  89 /  20  40  30  60 
BTR  74  91  73  90 /  20  40  30  60 
ASD  74  91  73  90 /  20  40  20  50 
MSY  77  90  76  90 /  20  40  30  60 
GPT  76  89  75  88 /  20  50  20  40 
PQL  75  92  74  90 /  20  40  20  30 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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