Monday, December 18, 2017, 3:32 PM EST
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS64 KLIX 181000
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
400 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...
No major changes to the forecast this morning. Widespread fog is
being observed this morning as the Dense Fog Advisory continues
through 9 AM this morning. The fog should slowly lift as showers
and maybe a few thunderstorms pass through the area today. Fog
should develop again tonight. The stalled boundary over the area
today will serve as the focus for precipitation. This boundary
will slowly push northward and by Tuesday the axis for shower as
storm development will be north of the area. The next shortwave
moves through the area early Wednesday morning. This wave could be
a little more potent. There is a chance for a few strong storms
Tuesday night into Wednesday as this system moves through.
Temperatures will be above normal.

.LONG TERM...
We should be between systems Thursday which means a dry Thursday...and
guidance then also points to another major system in the region 
this weekend. Still a lot of uncertainty going into the Christmas
holiday regarding the timing and strength of the next cold front.
Guidance has had a tough time determining if we will be warm or
cold for this system. That has a bearing on what kind of weather
we can expect obviously. With that being said have maintained a 
blend in the latter part of the forecast period due to the lack of
confidence in the long range forecast. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Ceilings and visibilities are quite varied across the 
P/CWA...ranging from VFR to VLIFR. This will continue to be the case 
through the night and into the early/mid morning hours before some 
improvement Monday afternoon. Increasing shower activity to the 
southwest is forecast to spread across portions of the forecast area 
overnight and early Monday. This activity will likely help to 
disperse the fog to some degree. The threat of showers will continue 
through the day Monday. Fog is expected to redevelop Monday night. 1

&&

.MARINE...
The stalled frontal boundary remains north of the 
coastal waters. As prev forecaster mentioned the pressure gradient 
has relaxed and wind speeds have dropped down to 10 to 15 knots over 
coastal waters. Because the front is north of the region winds 
remain out of the south. Fog has been a fickle thing tonight. Yes 
the onshore flow and very warm moist air over the cool near-shore 
waters did initially lead to sea fog but as the evening and overnight 
hours progressed the fog moved inland and actually left the near 
shore waters. Will leave the marine dense fog adv in effect but may 
have to cancel it early this morning if fog does not move back into 
this area. Fog is favorable again tonight into Tuesday morning. 

Next surface low is expected to traverse the Lower MS Valley Tuesday 
night and early Wednesday which will bring another weak cold front 
and likely stalling it over the region Wednesday as well before 
lifting north on Thursday. One more cold front is expected to 
approach the region this weekend but it remains to be seen if this 
will be another weak one stalling near the area or much stronger 
pushing well into the Gulf. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Dense/Marine Dense Fog Advs.
   
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend 
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or   
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support. 
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or             
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  61  75  63 /  60  20  30  60 
BTR  71  62  76  64 /  60  20  30  60 
ASD  72  61  75  65 /  60  10  30  50 
MSY  72  62  76  65 /  60  10  30  60 
GPT  69  61  72  65 /  70  10  30  50 
PQL  71  59  74  64 /  70  10  30  50 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ034>037-
     039-040-046>050-056>072.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ068>071-
     077-080>082.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557.

&&

$$

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