Thursday, June 29, 2017, 4:53 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
||Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS64 KLIX 290840
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
340 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017
The biggest issue in the short term will surely be rainfall this
morning and this afternoon as Gulf moisture streaming into area
interacts with a stalled frontal boundary draped across the area.
Model soundings indicate PW values as high as 2.3-2.35 inches this
afternoon which could easily lead to excessive rainfall rates
where the heavier storms set up. Rainfall chances are fairly close
to 100% across the area. With the possibility of heavy rains
today and the rainfall amounts the area has seen over the last
week or so with Cindy, a flash flood watch has been issued until
tonight for the entire area with the exception of the four SW
Mississippi counties. Rainfall amounts have not been quite as high
in those areas and the expectation is the maximum rainfall
amounts will be closer to the coast. With the rainfall and
cloud cover in the area, temperatures will stay well below normal
today across the area.
Some drier air will move into the area for Friday, bringing
temperatures back up some and bringing rainfall chances down and
more in line with our typical summertime chances.
Most attention paid to the very short term part of the forecast
and the potential heavy rainfall and flood threat today. Only a
few tweaks and changes made to the long term forecast. Overall,
rain chances should be on the downward trend as high pressure
moves into the area from the east.
Main issue will be rainfall at all locations. Cloud cover and
reduced visibilities from the rain will lead to MVFR and at times
IFR conditions at area terminals throughout the day today.
Onshore flow has returned and is funneling moisture into the
area. Winds are a touch elevated west of the Mississippi River
where small craft exercise caution headlines are out for the
morning hours. Otherwise, the main concern will be increased winds
and seas near showers and thunderstorms that develop today.
Beginning tomorrow, conditions should get gradually better over
the coastal waters as high pressure moves into the area.
DSS code: Yellow.
Activities: Monitoring rainfall today across the area
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 80 73 88 74 / 90 50 50 10
BTR 83 75 88 75 / 90 40 50 10
ASD 81 76 88 77 / 90 60 50 10
MSY 84 77 88 77 / 90 40 40 10
GPT 81 77 87 78 / 90 50 50 10
PQL 81 76 86 76 / 90 50 50 10
LA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ034>037-039-040-
MS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MSZ077-080>082.