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Area Forecast Discussion
||Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS65 KSLC 232151
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
351 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A gradual warming and drying trend will take hold
across the region beginning tomorrow as high pressure aloft
returns to the Great Basin.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Saturday)...The shortwave that moved
through Utah and southwest Wyoming overnight and into this morning
has lifted northward out of the area, but enough instability
remains to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms along the
Utah/Idaho border. Elsewhere, afternoon convection is primarily
terrain induced, with some of the stronger storms moving off the
Oquirrhs and into southern portions of the Salt Lake Valley. These
showers and thunderstorms are progged to continue into the early
evening before weakening.
With high pressure building over the region tonight through early
next week, the forecast area will see a gradual warming and drying
trend. Maxes should be running around 5F above seasonal normals by
Saturday. Lingering moisture will combine with daytime heating to
produce a few showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain
through the first part of the weekend, but overall coverage will
be on the decline as moisture continues to decrease.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Saturday)...In the extended period starting
this weekend, an amplifying ridge of high pressure across the Desert
Southwest is the main feature of interest. Rising heights into the
early part of next week, Tuesday, as well as increasing mid-level
temperatures will settle in across the Eastern Great Basin area,
Mostly dry and warm conditions will be present under the
aforementioned ridge through the upcoming week. As the high rotates
around the area, nearly centered over Utah and Nevada, the flow
across eastern Utah looks to favor an east- northeast direction.
This may give hope to any precipitation or convection to develop
across the higher terrain elevation areas of southern through
northeastern Utah through mid-week. Moisture looks pretty meager in
the extended. By Tuesday, some increase in low-mid level moisture by
way of mixing ratios will increase slightly, and namely across
southern Utah. All this said, have kept very light PoP mention in
the extended, and kept any mention to the mountain and higher
terrain locations of Utah.
.AVIATION...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions throughout
the TAF period with generally decreasing high and mid level clouds.
Northwest winds are expected to shift to the southeast between 02z
and 03z this evening. Nearby showers/thunderstorms may result in
periods of gusty and/or erratic winds at the terminal this afternoon
and into this evening. This may play a part in the diurnal wind
shift this evening.
.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms have developed once again
over the district this afternoon with the best coverage over the
higher terrain and near the Utah/Idaho border in association with
shortwave energy lifting northward. The threat of these storms
will continue through the early evening before diminishing.
High pressure will build over the district beginning tonight,
resulting in a gradual drying and warming trend through early next
week. Enough lingering moisture and instability will exist to
allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher
terrain during the afternoon and evening hours at least through
the weekend. With areal coverage of this convection being limited,
there will be little chance of wetting rains.
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
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