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Area Forecast Discussion
||Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS65 KSLC 212150
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
350 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019
A mild storm system will cross the region through Monday. High
pressure will follow, bringing a drying and warming trend for the
middle portion of the week.
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...
A closed low near Wendover will slowly churn southeast toward
southern Utah overnight, and into Arizona tomorrow. Shortwaves
embedded in this circulation will continue to support showers and
thunderstorms, most widespread during afternoon and evening hours,
with diurnal instability enhanced by the cold pool aloft.
Most high elevation snowfall will be spotty, with snow levels
Rising heights, warming aloft, loss of diurnal heating and
anticyclonic curvature will support the dissipation of showers
for good by Monday night.
A ridge builds in mid-week, leading to benign weather along with a
warming trend. A shortwave riding atop the ridge well to our north
will have to be watched for the potential to bring an increase in
clouds and a few showers near the Idaho border Wednesday.
.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...
The ridge of high pressure remains in place as the extended
forecast period begins, and persists into the beginning of next
weekend. Comparing the deterministic with the ensemble forecast
models, the respective members agree among one another (GFS
deterministic with the ensemble). That said, there is little
difference among models through early Saturday. Temperatures will
be on the warm side, 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late April.
Saturday into Sunday the ridge begins to break down. While the EC
ensemble wants to bring down a deepening trough from the Northern
Rockies/Canada, the deterministic version isn't quite as stout. The
GFS model on the other hand wants to develop a closed low off the
southern California coast, while the ensemble version has a weaker
low developing. This all said, as the ridge breaks down, available
moisture and favorable instability will lead to showers and
potential for thunderstorms across mostly northern Utah for
Friday afternoon and parts of Saturday and Sunday.
Similar to previous forecast, taking a blend of solutions for the
forecast since changes have not been drastic over the last 24 hours
with regards to forecast models.
VFR conditions are expected at the SLC terminal through the TAF
period with a 40 percent chance of high end MVFR conditions from
22Z until about 02Z do to showers and isolated thunderstorms Cigs
should fall below 6K ft AGL in showers through 03Z then improve.
North winds will prevail through tonight.
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