Sunday, April 21, 2019, 10:18 PM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS65 KSLC 212150

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
350 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019

A mild storm system will cross the region through Monday. High 
pressure will follow, bringing a drying and warming trend for the 
middle portion of the week. 


A closed low near Wendover will slowly churn southeast toward
southern Utah overnight, and into Arizona tomorrow. Shortwaves 
embedded in this circulation will continue to support showers and 
thunderstorms, most widespread during afternoon and evening hours,
with diurnal instability enhanced by the cold pool aloft. 

Most high elevation snowfall will be spotty, with snow levels 
near 9kft.

Rising heights, warming aloft, loss of diurnal heating and
anticyclonic curvature will support the dissipation of showers 
for good by Monday night. 

A ridge builds in mid-week, leading to benign weather along with a
warming trend. A shortwave riding atop the ridge well to our north 
will have to be watched for the potential to bring an increase in
clouds and a few showers near the Idaho border Wednesday.

The ridge of high pressure remains in place as the extended 
forecast period begins, and persists into the beginning of next 
weekend. Comparing the deterministic with the ensemble forecast 
models, the respective members agree among one another (GFS 
deterministic with the ensemble). That said, there is little 
difference among models through early Saturday. Temperatures will 
be on the warm side, 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late April.

Saturday into Sunday the ridge begins to break down. While the EC 
ensemble wants to bring down a deepening trough from the Northern 
Rockies/Canada, the deterministic version isn't quite as stout. The 
GFS model on the other hand wants to develop a closed low off the 
southern California coast, while the ensemble version has a weaker 
low developing. This all said, as the ridge breaks down, available 
moisture and favorable instability will lead to showers and 
potential for thunderstorms across mostly northern Utah for 
Friday afternoon and parts of Saturday and Sunday.

Similar to previous forecast, taking a blend of solutions for the 
forecast since changes have not been drastic over the last 24 hours 
with regards to forecast models.


VFR conditions are expected at the SLC terminal through the TAF 
period with a 40 percent chance of high end MVFR conditions from 
22Z until about 02Z do to showers and isolated thunderstorms Cigs 
should fall below 6K ft AGL in showers through 03Z then improve. 
North winds will prevail through tonight.





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