Monday, November 12, 2018, 9:40 PM EST
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS65 KSLC 122144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
244 PM MST Mon Nov 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Northerly flow will keep colder temperatures in place
through Tuesday. High pressure aloft will strengthen to the west 
of Utah resulting in near normal temperatures by mid week.


.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Friday)...Northerly flow aloft remains in
place across the forecast area this afternoon, downstream from an
amplified mid level ridge extending along the Pacific Coast. This
flow has kept a cool airmass in place with temperatures struggling
to reach the 40F mark along the Wasatch Front this afternoon. 

The upstream ridge is forecast to shift inland over the next
couple of days but weaken with time. The result will be a warming
trend most notable aloft, with most valleys likely seeing a more
tapered response as mixing will likely be somewhat limited by
light flow and a low sun angle. Nonetheless should see max temps
approach climo by Wednesday, with dry conditions continuing
through Thursday. 

.LONG TERM (After 00Z Friday)...A decaying ridge will continue to 
influence the forecast area Thursday night into Friday, however some 
changes are expected over the weekend. Latest global guidance has 
continued to indicate a narrow trough moving into the northern 
portion of the CWA Saturday. The trough will lack significant jet 
support, therefore its influence will quickly decay as we move into 
Sunday. This system is currently expected to bring mountain show 
with a slight chance for valley precipitation Saturday with isolated 
mountain snow lingering around Saturday night/early Sunday morning. 

Continuing into early-mid next week, the current global guidance 
solutions maintain a dry pattern over the forecast area to start 
next week.

Looking at the extended big picture, the h5 NAEFS/EPS ensemble means 
are indicating the development of a troughing pattern off the CONUS' 
west coast, shifting the eastern Pacific ridge further west. This 
pattern would be indicative of more robust synoptic (colder & more 
precipitation) systems encroaching over Utah. Confidence of this 
occurring is low ATTM, however it is worth noting of a potential 
pattern shift upcoming.


.AVIATION...Northerly winds at SLC will continue through 03z before 
shifting to the southeast. Clear skies expected through the TAF 





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