FXUS61 KCAR 211341
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
941 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the area today. Low pressure 
will approach tonight and lift north of the area Wednesday. The
low will pull a cold front across the region Wednesday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
935 AM Update...
No significant changes to forecast through this afternoon. We
will see increasing low level moisture tonight in advance of 
the next system approaching from the west. This will result in 
low clouds and areas of fog overspreading central and downeast 
after midnight. Will address this with the afternoon update. 
See updated aviation section for more on this.

previous discussion
Strong high pressure will remain over the area today and
will bring sunny and dry conditions to the area. Intensifying 
low pressure will pass to the west of New England Tonight and 
will result in showers moving into western areas towards 
morning. Temperature will be in the mid to upper 70s today and 
in the mid 50s for lows tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled day Wednesday as a potent surface low pressure passes
by to our northwest, sending an occluded front through in the
morning, followed by a cold front toward sunset. Could be a few
storms right ahead of the cold front, but not expecting 
anything strong or severe. Most areas will see a wetting rain 
with generally 0.3 to 0.6 inches of rain.

Cooler, drier airmass works in Wednesday night into Thursday
with breezy conditions. Stratocumulus should persist Thursday
mainly across the north, and went higher than models for
cloud cover in the north Thursday due to a known sunny bias on
days like Thursday. High pressure works into New England
Thursday night with cool temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Warm and somewhat muggy weekend in store as south/southwest flow
returns as the high pressure moves off to our east. Eventually
rain chances return late Sunday into Monday, though models
differ on timing and amount of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 935 AM Update...VFR through this afternoon. Low
ceilings and areas of fog will overspread KBGR/KBHB after 06z
with potential for IFR/LIFR in low ceilings and reduced
visibility. The low clouds could make it toward the 
KHUl/KPQI/KCAR terminals toward 12z Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: IFR early Wednesday most areas, probably only 
improving to MVFR most areas in the afternoon. Rapid improvement
to VFR Wednesday evening as a cold front passes through. 
Generally VFR Thursday to Saturday. Could be some MVFR ceilings 
far Northern Maine on Thursday at times, though.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Seas likely building to 5 to 6 feet Wednesday night.
South winds ahead of the cold front during the day Wednesday
could also approach small craft levels. Quieter conditions late
Thursday into Saturday with high pressure.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/Mignone
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Duda/Mignone/Foisy
Marine...Duda/Mignone/Foisy