Monday, August 20, 2018, 8:41 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCAR 201052
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME
652 AM EDT Mon Aug 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly moves to the northeast today and into the
Canadian Maritimes on Tuesday. An upper level trough will move
east into the region around midweek, bringing a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday before a
cold front moves through. This cold front will usher cooler and
drier air into the region on Thursday before a warm up begins on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...
Have updated the forecast this morning based on latest
observations and mesoscale models. Patchy fog will continue
through 13Z. Otherwise the trend for today will be decreasing
clouds this morning with seasonable temperatures this afternoon.

Prev Disc...
High pressure will crest over eastern Maine this morning before
beginning to slide gradually to the east. After some patchy 
early morning fog, expect mainly sunny skies and seasonably mild
high temperatures in the 70s. It will be slightly cooler along 
the Downeast coast during the afternoon hours as winds remain 
onshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure will continue to slowly slide east into the 
Canadian Maritimes tonight. However, patchy fog is possible late
at night in the sheltered valleys as the temperatures approach 
their dew point values.

High level moisture will begin to advect over the region during
the afternoon hours. However, plenty of sunshine during the
morning will once again allow temperatures to climb into and
through the 70s at H8 readings remain in the +10 to +12 C 
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A vigorous upper level low for this time of the year will begin
to move through southeast Canada Tuesday night. A strong cold
front will approach from the west, bringing scattered showers to
northern and eastern sections of Maine, mainly towards morning. 

This precipitation will expand in coverage and intensity on
Wednesday as this relatively strong cold front enters the
region. 00Z model suite suggests a wave of low pressure may form
along this front during the midday hours, possibly enhancing the
rainfall in a few locations over southern areas. As the
atmosphere destabilizes Wednesday afternoon, the potential for
thunderstorms will increase. With increasing dynamics across the
region with developing winds aloft, a few of the storms may be
strong. This potential has been highlighted in the hazardous 
weather outlook.

Any leftover showers will come to an end Wednesday night,
followed by cold air advection and high pressure on Thursday.
Maximum temperatures will be in the mid 60s far north to the mid
70s in the south. A few clouds may develop over the higher
terrain during the midday hours as the upper level trough
crosses the region.

A surface ridge of high pressure will build south of the region
on Friday, allowing for a return flow of southwesterly winds and
warm air advection over northern New England. This will allow
for milder temperatures. This gradual warming trend will
continue into the weekend as high pressure moves off the Eastern
Seaboard.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR conditions thru tonight with the 
exception of patchy valley fog early this morning and possibly
again late tonight.

LONG TERM: VFR conditions Tuesday night, with some tempo IFR 
flight restrictions in SHRA/TSRA on Wed into Wed evening. VFR 
returns for Thu/Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory 
levels today through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: SCAs will likely be needed on Wednesday, but 
otherwise winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WFO CAR suffered a comms failure yesterday, and forecast and 
warning duties continue to be handled by WFO GYX until the 
comms are restored.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Cannon

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