Monday, December 18, 2017, 11:43 AM EST
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KPBZ 181628
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1128 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer, but damp weather can be expected early this
week followed by cooler temperatures on Wednesday. The next 
chance for widespread measurable precipitation will be later 
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only minor changes needed as of mid-morning with obs starting to
report drizzle upstream. Generally kept PoPs low but a bit of 
an upslope component is expected as the wind shifts more 
westerly aloft. Will keep highest chance values here. Otherwise,
Low level moisture and clouds will remain locked in place.
Temperatures will be able to warm even with modest mixing and
will likely stay elevated, with minimal diurnal range,
overnight. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Zonal flow will be maintained with weak forcing. Overcast skies
will persist, however, periods of light precipitation should 
end by Tuesday afternoon as the depth of the saturated layer 
decreases.
 
Warm southwesterly surface flow will continue the upward trend 
in temperatures until a weak boundary drops south across the 
forecast area Tuesday night and flow shifts to the northwest...resulting
in cooler temperatures on Wednesday. Stable conditions should
result in little more than continued cloud coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions will continue through the second half of the week
with an upward trend in temperatures. Daytime max temperatures
on Friday are currently forecast between 10 and 15 degrees above
normal.

The overall pattern will start to become more meridional 
towards the end of the week...with the next system to impact 
the region later on Friday and Saturday. Adjustments in the 
extended were largely based on superblend and ensemble guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Stratus and eventual drizzle will spread northward through the
morning. IFR restrictions have reached ZZV/HLG/MGW and should 
reach PIT by mid-morning and FKL/DUJ by early afternoon. Once 
the stratus is in place, little change in airmass is anticipated
through the end of the TAF period, so restrictions will 
continue. 

South-southwesterly winds will remain at 10kts or less through 
the forecast period.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely through Tuesday, as abundant low-level 
moisture remains trapped under the inversion.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
PBZ-20339

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