Sunday, December 17, 2017, 4:31 PM EST
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCLE 170529

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1230 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

A weak front in northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania will lift 
north as a warm front on Sunday. A weak cold front will drop across 
the lower Great Lakes on Tuesday. High pressure will drift across 
the area on Wednesday.


A lingering weak front over the north part of the CWA will help to 
provide a focus for areas of fog and stratus to likely be present 
across the north the rest of the night. There could be some isolated 
spots of fzdz but many roadways are already wet from condensation so 
the added fzdz will have little additional affect.

An approaching weak system will cause mid and high clouds to 
increase late tonight and early Sunday from SW to NE so Sunday will 
become cloudy. 

A weakening short is progged to dampen out as it crosses the 
ridge on Sunday but combined with the warm advection and 
increasing low level jet, could produce a few light rain showers or 
drizzle in the afternoon into Sunday night. Temps should all be 
above freezing at the surface although it could be close across 
interior eastern Erie and Crawford Counties PA. I suppose a few
wet flakes could mix in across extreme NE OH/NW PA if there were
to be enough upward motion.


By daybreak Monday could still see a mix of rain and/or snow in
the extreme east but things quickly transition to all rain by 
afternoon. That said do not expect much in the way of precip 
either way as limited moisture. So for now will just continue 
with chance pops.

Another cold front pushes through on Tuesday. Models still 
differ on timing as NAM moves front through in the morning and 
the slower GFS not until late afternoon. For now will superblend
the temps and continue with chance pops in the east.


The flow will become highly amplified through the end of the week. 
As a trough deepens from the Upper Midwest and south through the 
plains, a low will develop across the southern Plains and move 
northeast across the lower Great Lakes. So far there is decent 
agreement amongst the models on taking the low just to our northwest 
early Friday morning and passing the cold front across as shortwave 
energy dives south out of Canada. This will bring rain chances to 
the area starting possibly late Thursday night, with the best 
chances on Friday. Beyond Friday though the solutions have the 
potential to diverge with when and how the southwest/four corners 
upper low exits and how the interaction with shortwave energy 
working over the expansive ridge off of the west coast takes place. 
After highs in the 40s Thursday and Friday, trend the temperatures 
back down closer to freezing for Saturday. Lingered some snow 
chances across the snowbelt after Friday's front through Saturday. 
For all others the primary opportunity for precip is Friday.


.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Areas of fog and stratus will be present until dissipation occurs 
between 14z and 16z as the airmass starts to heat and winds pick up 
some. Conditions will generally be the worst near Lake Erie due to 
the added low level moisture off of the lake.

A system moving in from the west will lead to increasing high and 
mid level clouds from SW to NE thru the day. Mainly just patchy 
light rain will try and spread NE across the region this aftn and 
early tonight.

Winds will stay light, generally under 10 knots while veering from 
E/SE to SSW into tonight.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible into Monday. Non-VFR also possible 
northeast OH and northwest PA later Tuesday into Wednesday.


Dropped the small craft advisory as the west winds have diminished
to 10 to 15 knots. Winds will shift to the ENE tonight. Small 
craft advisories will be needed again late Monday as winds turn 
to the SE and increase to 15 to 25 knots ahead of next front. 
Winds turn to the NW Tuesday as another cold front pushes across
the lake. Winds diminish on Wednesday from the west as high 
pressure builds over the lake.




NEAR TERM...TK/Kosarik/Adams

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