Tuesday, July 17, 2018, 1:25 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCLE 160536
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
136 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will move into the Upper Great Lakes on
Monday then continue east Monday night, pushing a cold front
south across the area. A drier airmass withe seasonal
temperatures will return as high pressure builds southeast
across the Great Lakes Region from Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Showers/thunderstorms are coming to an end across the 
Wooster/Canton area. Still look to be dry for the night for most
everyone apart from an isolated shower/storm. 

Previous discussion...Moisture will start to advect into 
western portions of the area late tonight as broad troughiness 
in the low levels advances eastward. Better chances for 
precipitation will hold off until instability develops towards 
midday on Monday but will start to bring back in a low 20 pop by
late tonight in the west, expanding eastward on Monday morning.
The area should destabilize quickly on Monday and see scattered
showers and thunderstorms develop in areas of low level 
convergence out ahead of the actual cold front. High res models 
are targeting an expansion of showers over the central highlands
that will spread east and expand through the afternoon. Actual 
cold front will accelerate into the area late in the afternoon 
as the upper trough deepens across the western Great Lakes. 
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to continue 
through the evening as the front pushes east then taper off 
after midnight. Monday will be another hot and humid day. Highs 
will be a little tricky based on the coverage of thunderstorms 
and clouds but most locations will top out in the upper 80s. A 
drier airmass will advect in behind the front with humidity 
levels starting to drop off.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Little change in the short term forecast. A large area of high 
pressure builds SE over the area on Tuesday ushering in cooler, 
drier conditions and plenty of sunshine. High temps will be 
nearly seasonal on Tuesday, then dip into the mid to upper 70s 
on Wednesday. The high shift east into Central PA on Thursday 
allowing a gradual warm up.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Big changes coming to help in the lack of rainfall some 
locations have seen over the last couple weeks. Amplification of
the upper level ridge over the plains states will cause 
deepening of an upper level low pressure system over the western
Great Lakes by Saturday night. This system will make an attempt
to tap into the Gulf of Mexico moisture and stream it north 
into the forecast area. A reflection of the upper level low 
pressure system will develop at the surface as a low pressure 
over Iowa by early Thursday. This surface low pressure is 
expected to move east toward the lower Great Lakes by Saturday 
night. A threat for showers and thunderstorms will take place 
Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will be on the warm side 
during the nights in the 60s to near 70 while day time highs 
will hover around the 80 degree mark each day. No strong push of
cooler air is expected with this low pressure system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Just a few high clouds are expected overnight. The daylight
hours should be a repeat of Sunday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected to develop during the afternoon. Coverage
should be greater than Sunday however. Will give the sites near
Lake Erie a prob30 mention for a few hours. Coverage and
confidence should be a little greater inland and those TAF sites
will get tempos. S to SW flow under 10 knots is expected most of
the period.  

OUTLOOK...Brief non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms 
Monday night and Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions will continue on the lake until Monday night 
when a cold front pushes across the Lake. Light winds turn to 
the south tonight, then to the southwest tomorrow ahead of the 
front. A small craft advisory is likely Tuesday with NW winds of
15 to 20 knots. west. Winds diminish on Wednesday as high 
pressure builds SE over the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...DJB

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