Tuesday, July 17, 2018, 1:25 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
||Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCLE 160536
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
136 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018
An upper level trough will move into the Upper Great Lakes on
Monday then continue east Monday night, pushing a cold front
south across the area. A drier airmass withe seasonal
temperatures will return as high pressure builds southeast
across the Great Lakes Region from Tuesday through Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Showers/thunderstorms are coming to an end across the
Wooster/Canton area. Still look to be dry for the night for most
everyone apart from an isolated shower/storm.
Previous discussion...Moisture will start to advect into
western portions of the area late tonight as broad troughiness
in the low levels advances eastward. Better chances for
precipitation will hold off until instability develops towards
midday on Monday but will start to bring back in a low 20 pop by
late tonight in the west, expanding eastward on Monday morning.
The area should destabilize quickly on Monday and see scattered
showers and thunderstorms develop in areas of low level
convergence out ahead of the actual cold front. High res models
are targeting an expansion of showers over the central highlands
that will spread east and expand through the afternoon. Actual
cold front will accelerate into the area late in the afternoon
as the upper trough deepens across the western Great Lakes.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to continue
through the evening as the front pushes east then taper off
after midnight. Monday will be another hot and humid day. Highs
will be a little tricky based on the coverage of thunderstorms
and clouds but most locations will top out in the upper 80s. A
drier airmass will advect in behind the front with humidity
levels starting to drop off.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Little change in the short term forecast. A large area of high
pressure builds SE over the area on Tuesday ushering in cooler,
drier conditions and plenty of sunshine. High temps will be
nearly seasonal on Tuesday, then dip into the mid to upper 70s
on Wednesday. The high shift east into Central PA on Thursday
allowing a gradual warm up.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Big changes coming to help in the lack of rainfall some
locations have seen over the last couple weeks. Amplification of
the upper level ridge over the plains states will cause
deepening of an upper level low pressure system over the western
Great Lakes by Saturday night. This system will make an attempt
to tap into the Gulf of Mexico moisture and stream it north
into the forecast area. A reflection of the upper level low
pressure system will develop at the surface as a low pressure
over Iowa by early Thursday. This surface low pressure is
expected to move east toward the lower Great Lakes by Saturday
night. A threat for showers and thunderstorms will take place
Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will be on the warm side
during the nights in the 60s to near 70 while day time highs
will hover around the 80 degree mark each day. No strong push of
cooler air is expected with this low pressure system.
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Just a few high clouds are expected overnight. The daylight
hours should be a repeat of Sunday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected to develop during the afternoon. Coverage
should be greater than Sunday however. Will give the sites near
Lake Erie a prob30 mention for a few hours. Coverage and
confidence should be a little greater inland and those TAF sites
will get tempos. S to SW flow under 10 knots is expected most of
OUTLOOK...Brief non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms
Monday night and Friday afternoon.
Quiet conditions will continue on the lake until Monday night
when a cold front pushes across the Lake. Light winds turn to
the south tonight, then to the southwest tomorrow ahead of the
front. A small craft advisory is likely Tuesday with NW winds of
15 to 20 knots. west. Winds diminish on Wednesday as high
pressure builds SE over the lake.