Monday, December 18, 2017, 12:13 AM EST
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KBGM 172350
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
650 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will trend milder, for the next couple of days. 
Weak disturbances, will bring the chance for occasional light 
rain or wet snow. A brief return of seasonably cold weather, is
then expected for the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 pm update... Satellite trends, as well as our latest near-
term guidance, now suggest that lower clouds will expand across
CNY/NEPA later tonight, then remain draped over the region 
Monday, with a moist southerly flow in the lower levels of the 
atmosphere. 

A fast moving short-wave will zip across the mid-Atlantic region this
evening, and could bring some flurries to portions of NEPA. 
Since this system is so progressive and moisture starved 
overall, we don't expect anything more than that. Later tonight
into early Monday, warm advection forcing will increase over
northern portions of the forecast area, as another short-wave
and associated surface low track from the northern Great Lakes
region into southeastern Canada. Consequently, we expect some 
light snow to break out towards daybreak over the northern 
Finger Lakes, the Mohawk Valley, and the southern Tug Hill 
region. As boundary layer temperatures warm Monday, we 
anticipate a rain/snow mix with time, and perhaps predominately 
rain showers by day's end, with surface temperatures in the mid 
30s-lower 40s by this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
145 PM update...
A weak trof associated with a Canadian low pressure system will
move across NY Monday night. Light snow showers are forecast,
with up to an inch of accumulation over Oneida County, where
temperatures should be colder and terrain will provide lift.

925mb temperatures will be near +3C along the NY/PA border, and
this will allow for surface maximums in the 40s, with a
scattering of rain showers.

The cold front passes early Tuesday evening, changing rain
showers back over to light snow showers. A lake response is
expected over Oneida County.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
150 PM update...

A brisk zonal flow is forecast for much of the long term period.
The polar jet should confine most of the cold air to Canada, so
above-normal temperatures are forecast for NY and PA.

Ongoing lake effect will come to an end late Wednesday. Wind
trajectories puts the band over Northern Oneida County. 

High pressure builds in for Thursday, but the zonal flow will
usher another storm system into Michigan early Friday, with a 
warm front pushing across NY/PA. Long-term soundings suggest the
possibility for freezing rain, but it is much too early to 
commit to precipitation type.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions across the region this evening. Fuel
alternate required cigs at KBGM should improve to VFR by 03Z.

Later tonight and Monday, ceiling bases will lower area-wide,
such that widespread fuel alternate-IFR is anticipated. The most
likely candidates for IFR will be KBGM with lower ceilings, and
KRME and KSYR with reduced visibilities and lower cigs in light
snow. Precipitation will likely change to/become a rain/snow 
mix between 11-14Z at KITH, KSYR, KRME...with ceilings improving
to fuel alternate required or MVFR after 17Z. Should become rain
at KITH with MVFR cigs in the afternoon. KRME and KSYR may
remain a rain/snow mix through most of the afternoon as an upper
wave slides ewd through nrn NY. 

Most of the precip will remain to the north...so KELM, KBGM and
KAVP should remain dry. KBGM may see persistent cigs below MVFR
through the day. KELM and KAVP may see VFR cigs by the
afternoon. 

Light winds (5 kt or less) through tonight, will become
south/swly on Monday at 5-10 kt. 

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...Probable restrictions in lower
ceilings, along with rain or snow showers. 

Wednesday...Restrictions possible again in lake effect snow
showers, mainly KSYR and KRME.

Thursday...VFR.

Friday...Restrictions possibly developing again in mixed
precipitation.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...BJT/MLJ

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