Saturday, July 21, 2018, 3:32 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KRLX 210716
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
316 AM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system will move south into the Ohio Valley today,
and persist nearby through Monday. Cold front arrives late next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Saturday...

Vertically stacked low pressure system drops SE into the region
today. Forecast soundings indicate some modest instability this
afternoon with the cold air aloft. CAPE of about 500 J/Kg should
be established by this afternoon. Tried to time highest PoPs 
today around max heating this afternoon and into this evening
and then decrease after sunset. Showers and storms will be much
weaker than storms we saw yesterday. Nonetheless, will still 
have to keep an eye out for potential flash flooding through 
Sunday morning, as any storms will have slow movement with the 
upper low overhead and also due to the already wet antecedent 
conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

Models show a slowly progression of the aforementioned low 
pressure system, still over the OH Valley and southeast OH
Sunday. A very juicy airmass will persist over the area with 
PWATs values from 1.5 to 2.0 inches. Models suggest modest 
bouyancy across the southern half of WV, southeast OH and 
extreme southwest VA on Sunday. Therefore, coded likely PoPs
across the southern half of our CWA Sunday, decreasing to 
chance PoPs Sunday night. Heavy rainfall still possible over 
near saturated terrain, and could produce localized flooding 
with any downpour. Dropped PoPs and removed thunder Sunday 
night per lack of forcing. However, PWATs will continue high, 
and light showers will still possible. 

By Monday, the low pressure is expected to move south of our 
CWA, which could bring more showers and storms but not as 
widespread as Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 310 PM Friday...

The low pressure from the short term period will hover near the
Gulf of Mexico and drive southerly flow and moisture through 
the forecast period. An upper level trough will slowly move 
through the Great Lakes area and will aid in chances of showers 
and storms through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 AM Saturday...

Upper level low pressure will drop southeast into the region on
Saturday. This will bring a chance for showers and storms
through the weekend. Any heavier shower or thunderstorm can 
could produce brief IFR conditions, as can post-rain fog and low
stratus- fractus at night. Should be enough low level wind flow
through early Saturday morning to ward off any significant fog
development.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
     
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and intensity of showers and 
thunderstorms through Saturday night, as well as post-rain 
nocturnal fog, may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 07/21/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    H    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    H    H    L    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday night and 
Sunday and fog or low stratus possible through the early AM
hours.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ/99
LONG TERM...ARJ/99
AVIATION...MPK

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