Wednesday, May 24, 2017, 4:15 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
||Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCTP 240812
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
412 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017
Periods of wet weather with cooler-than-average temperatures
will dampen the area for the second half of the week. Widespread
rain is expected late tonight into Thursday, followed by shower
spells Thursday afternoon into Friday. Temperatures should
rebound modestly over the Memorial Day holiday weekend with a
chance for showers and thunderstorms.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Light rain associated with weak mid level wave should come to
an end in the LSV around 12z based on HIRES model consensus. The
latest near term HIRES model and ensemble guidance indicates
most of the area stays dry today as pcpn activity focuses to the
south/west across the OH Valley and Central Appalachians. Max
12hr POPs ending 25/00z are over the southwest 1/4 of the CWA or
in the Laurel Highlands late this afternoon/early evening.
Models remain consistent in bringing widespread rain over the
area tonight into early Thursday morning and have increased POPs
to near 100 percent for the entire CWA. Strong H85 moisture flux
anomalies and southeast low level jet combined with increasing
large scale forcing/ascent associated with amplifying upper
trough suggests some moderate to locally heavy rain amounts
(0.75 to 1 inch) are possible tonight with peak rain intensity
likely in the 06-12z Thursday period. The southeast low level
flow should enhance UVVS in the eastern upslope side of the
terrain where some local 1" pcpn maxes will be possible.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The strong upper trough will pivot over the northern Mid
Atlantic states on Thursday, with low pressure at the surface
consolidating over PA Thursday night before lifting up the
NJ/New England coast Friday. Steadier rain Thursday morning
should lift north of the area with partial sunshine leading to
shower spells and perhaps a few T'storms in the afternoon. Broad
cyclonic/northwest flow with additional shortwaves rotating
around the departing upper low will keep showers in the fcst on
Friday before precip winds down Friday night/AM Saturday.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A lower-amplitude mid level flow pattern will develop into the
weekend with some ridging likely at 500mb. Uncertainty regarding
location and timing of shortwave impulses rounding the ridge
and effect of prior upstream convection leaves plenty of
question marks for Saturday - but there is more agreement in
area of max POPs over S OH/into WV and SW PA in the afternoon.
NBM/ECE blend yielded the highest POPs for Sunday across
Central PA associated with cold front moving south/eastward
across the Great Lakes/Appalachians. A severe risk may accompany
the cold front but still to early for details. The large scale
pattern evolves into a broadly cyclonic regime into early next
week around an upper low between the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay.
This should keep the pattern unsettled with continued threat
for showers/Tstorms through Tuesday.
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z TAFS sent.
Some rain pushing slowly to the north into the far south.
MVFR CIGS possible for a brief time across the southeast.
Otherwise it should be a dry day with VFR conditions, as the
rain across the southeast moves out this morning.
Rain will overspread the area Wed evening from the west.
Earlier discussion below.
Most of the flying area is under a blanket of high clouds. Some
MVFR has crept into MDT and this lowering ceiling trend over
southern areas as the area of rain slowly overspreads the
Expect the mainly light rain to move into about the southern
half of the forecast area during the remainder of the overnight
and early this morningwith MVFR/IFR conditions developing.
Northern areas will see just spotty light showers and widespread
sub VFR conditions are not expected.
Conditions will improve slowly this morning with most areas
improving to VFR by mid day. MVFR could hang tough over the
Clouds will increase west to east as another system approaches
with rain and reduced conditions overnight Wednesday into
Thu...Rain/low cigs likely through at least midday.
Fri...Showers/MVFR cigs NW. Mainly VFR SE.
Sat...No sig wx expected.
Sun...Reduced conditions with scattered showers.