Saturday, April 30, 2016, 12:50 PM EDT
Return to Local
Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Sat, Apr 30, 3:31am EDT
FXUS61 KCTP 300731
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
331 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO BRING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH
THIS MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL
OCCUR FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD...SHALLOW LOW CLOUDS AND FOG (MAINLY LIGHT) WILL
PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. BASED ON THE 0-3 DEG F SFC T/TD SPREAD
AT ALL LOCATIONS, TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEG F THROUGH 11Z.
EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40F ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FOR TODAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN BASICALLY PRECIPITATION FREE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...I'M NOT
OPTIMISTIC FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT SKY COVER-WISE. A 1-2 KFT
THICK LAYER OF BKN-OVC STRATO CU SHOULD PERSIST AT MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. 

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WARRANT THE
MENTION OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE AFTERNOON.

WITH NO RAIN...WE SHOULD MANAGE TO BE ABOUT 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN
FRIDAY ON AVERAGE...OR BETWEEN 55-60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO CENTRAL PA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 48-HOUR FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING 00Z
TUESDAY ARE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. THE FCST RAINFALL SHOULD HELP THE AREA
RECOVER FROM /60-90+ DAY/ DEFICITS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF
-2.00 TO -4.00 INCHES. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR NOW HAS OVER
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA IN ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS WITH A
SMALL AREA OF MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS FOCUSED OVER
BEDFORD COUNTY.

A PERIOD OF IMPROVING/DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS UNSETTLED INTO THE
MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS
ALL SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/ANOMALOUS MEAN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE ERN CONUS BUT THERE ARE STILL MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE PIECES OF THE
FCST PUZZLE TO RESOLVE. THE GUIDANCE AGREES IN PRINCIPLE THAT AN
ELONGATED AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR OR ALONG THE EAST
COAST/WRN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER QUESTION MARKS WITH THE DETAILS ALOFT
LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE/PREDICTABILITY IN THE RAINFALL TIMING AND
COVERAGE PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES VS. SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN STILL CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ. ANY SHOWERS
WILL FADE TOWARDS MORNING. WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
THE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY BREAKING UP IN SOME LOCATIONS...LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CALM OR EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AT BFD...AOO...UNV AND MDT OVERNIGHT. 

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR A TIME TODAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN 00Z TO 03Z SUNDAY. 

OUTLOOK...

MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

WED...MVFR WITH AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERTNEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

Support USWX by starting your Amazon purchase here.