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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Thu, Aug 27, 11:55pm EDT
FXUS61 KCTP 280355
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1155 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OT THE
EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND
SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...AND VERY WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
IR LOOP AT 01Z SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS
CENTRAL PA FROM KJST TO KIPT. HOWEVER...SATL TRENDS AND LATEST NR
TERM MDL GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST ALL AREA WILL BECOME CLEAR BY
MIDNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES. 

CLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL RESULT IN STEADILY FALLING
TEMPS OVERNIGHT A NEAR CERTAINTY OF LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND CENTRAL VALLEYS. DWPT DEPRESSION ALREADY
FAIRLY LOW AT 01Z AND SUSPECT FOG WILL DEVELOP BTWN 04Z-06Z. BLEND
OF LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS FROM THE M40S IN THE COOLEST
VALLEYS OF THE NW...TO THE U50S IN URBAN AREAS OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BEGIN OUR WARM UP AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO BUILD.
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. MDL 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE 70S OVR MOST OF CENTRAL
PA...TO THE L80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...SOME 5-8 DEG
WARMER THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTRAL PA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH THIS 
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE RETURN OF 
WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR TO THE REGION. 

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE 
OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY...AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST...BUT 
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING 
INTO MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE 
EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY 
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. IT SHOULD ALSO KEEP CENTRAL 
PA MAINLY DRY...EXCLUDING ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH LOCAL VFR
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE FOG BURNS OFF TO A VFR AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI EVE AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...HAGNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER

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