Sunday, June 26, 2016, 2:59 PM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Sun, Jun 26, 2:13pm EDT
FXUS61 KCTP 261813

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
213 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Very warm but not that humid this afternoon with temperatures in
the 80s. The risk for showers and thunderstorms returns Monday
into Tuesday, followed by mainly dry weather through midweek.


The last weekend in June ends on a superb note with very warm
temperatures in the 80s and relatively low humidity. Decent cu
field along the Alleghenies will crumble with the loss of heating
and give way clear skies for the first part of tonight. Clouds
will increase after midnight ahead of a cold front moving
southeast from the Great Lakes with showers likely reaching
northwest PA by 12z Monday.  


Weak large-scale ascent and marginally unstable atm should lead
to sct showers and a few Tstorms along/ahead of the front as is
traverses the CWA through 00z Tue. Storms are generally expected
to remain non-severe but could produce some locally heavy
downpours with PWs above normal. Any lingering showers should
shift south/east toward the coast Monday night with mainly dry
conditions in central PA.


After the cold front moves east of PA Monday night, a more
vigorous secondary shortwave will slide through the region Tuesday
helping to kick off additional scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Mid week looks mainly dry as weak mid level shortwave ridging is
made to bring a break in the precip chances. The GFS was an
outlier bringing some showers up into central Pa by Thursday afternoon.
The GEFS reflected this with very small chances while the ECMWF
and Canadian were dry, so I chose the more optimistic solutions
leaving the mention of showers out of the forecast.

By Friday the upper low bottoms out south of James Bay. Models are
having a hard time resolving individual shortwaves rotating around
this system, but with increasing cyclonic flow aloft there is
some consensus in reintroducing the chances for
showers/thunderstorms for Friday into the weekend.

Daytime highs by midweek will be near to slightly below normal,
but still very pleasant for late June.


VFR through tonight. Cold front moving southeast from the Great
Lakes will likely bring showers into the northwest airspace
06-12z with some MVFR vis/cigs possible. The front remains a focus
for isolated to widely scattered convection on Monday as it
continues to push southeast across the airspace through 00z Tue.


Mon...VFR with ocnl restrictions in isold-sct showers/tstms.

Tue...AM fog possible. Isold PM tsra impacts possible eastern 1/2.

Wed-Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri...Chance of showers/Tstms.




NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...La Corte

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