Thursday, July 19, 2018, 1:31 PM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCTP 191343
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
943 AM EDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Pleasant and dry weather will last through Friday. A pattern
change into the weekend will yield an extended period of wet 
conditions Sunday through next week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Fog in the river valleys has dissipated over the northern tier.
Abundant sunshine and comfortable conditions will prevail again
today with low humidity and light winds. Increasing low level
moisture tonight into Friday morning should result in warmer 
overnight lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As the flow starts to veer to the S and the sunshine works on 
the earth, the temps should rise back to normal or even warmer 
for Friday aftn. 

Well-stacked low pressure over the upper midwest on Friday will
begin to draw deep moisture up into wrn PA by the end of the 
day. Have held onto a very low PoP for the far west, esp Warren
Co, for very late in the day. Otherwise, it should stay dry. The
eastward progression/translation of the low pressure/heights
will be slow, reaching only the western shore of LM by Sat
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
By the weekend, ridge slides off the East Coast as low pressure
settles over the Ohio Valley, channeling moisture northward. A 
compact wave of low pressure forms near the Carolinas and slides
northward toward NJ by Sat night - enhancing rain/convection 
chances further. EC and GFS differ slightly on the intensity of
the coastal low. Will need to keep an eye on this feature as 
could focus heavier rains over eastern portions of the state.
Sat and Sat PM could be dry over most of the CWA with us in
between systems. 

After that coastal low passes by, the filling upper low 
centered off to the west will keep mention of daily scattered 
convection in the forecast through much of the week as a
tropical feel persists. An approaching cold front for late 
week will again enhance precip chances. Have peaked the bell
curve of PoPs in mid-week. 

Temperatures will be close to normal during the days and above 
average overnights with the moisture and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread VFR flying expected into the weekend. A moist,
southeasterly low level flow should bring low ceilings into 
parts of the airspace by Saturday morning. 

.Outlook... 

Sat-Mon...Occasional SHRA/TSRA with associated MVFR/IFR 
restrictions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Steinbugl

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