Monday, July 23, 2018, 1:59 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCTP 230550
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
150 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An extensive wet pattern with frequent rounds of rain will 
elevate the risk of flooding across parts of central 
Pennsylvania this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Went ahead and ended FFA for this evening. Still tracking a few
areas of heavy showers. One band is approaching Adams and York
Counties and has a narrow east west band of heavy rain that will
be monitored since it's moving into the area that had some of
the heaviest rain yesterday. Elsewhere looking at just brief
showers overnight. Temperatures will fall little with the thick
cloud cover and humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*Multi-day heavy to excessive rain risk continues over parts of
 south central PA 

An extensive wet pattern will continue to raise concerns for
flash and small stream flooding through the short term period.
Atmospheric river set-up with deep layer south-southeast flow
will maintain very high PWs and support intense rain rates.
Coordinating an upgrade to MDT risk for the D2 WPC ERO and may
need to continue FF watch.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Tuesday, filling upper trough off to our west will remain 
nearly stationary or even retrograde a little as strong broad 
ridge forms over the western U.S. For PA, long fetch moist 
southerly low-level flow continues for much of the week, with 
upper flow turning more SW/W. Not much to inhibit daily 
convection along this river of high PWAT air over the region, 
so very efficient precip producers that could exacerbate 
flooding situation after several days of noteworthy rains could
continue to bring potential flooding impacts through much of the
week.

Best daily chances for tstorms shifts to western/central 
sections early in the week (as ridge briefly edges in from the
east) before precip shifts eastward Thu as a cold frontal 
boundary finally pushes across the state. The weekend looks
drier yet scattered showers may persist.

Though it will be quite muggy, temperatures will be at or
slightly below below normal much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Firehose of moisture from south to north over the next three
days will play havoc with flight catiegories through midweek.
Expect flucuations from VFR to IFR and back in only minutes of
time as streams of moisture and associated convection move over
all airfields.

In the short term, a plume of moisture is moving north along 
the Susquehanna river. This will affect KMDT, KLNS and KIPT 
through sunrise. Airfields west of this line will have VCSH and 
visibility and ceiling reductions to MVFR in BR at times.

As heating returns during the daylight hours, -RA and TSRA will
redevelop over a majority of the area during the afternoon. 
This will diminish after sunset - only to repeat again on Monday
night and Tuesday...and points well into the future. 

.Outlook... 

Tue-Fri...Frequent showers/isolated T'storms with associated 
MVFR/IFR restrictions. TSRA most numerous in PM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
2 to 6 inches of rain in the past 24 hours has produced
significant rises on small streams and creeks. An extensive wet
pattern this week with frequent rounds of rain and daily
downpours will elevate the risk of river (small stream/creek) 
flooding through late week.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Ross/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Ross/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Ross/RXR
AVIATION...Dangelo/Tyburski
HYDROLOGY...

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