Monday, December 18, 2017, 3:30 PM EST
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KRLX 180653
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
153 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak disturbance with light precipitation through tonight. 
Cold fronts cross Tuesday and again Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 AM Monday...

Overall, a rather dreary day on tap, although it will be warmer. 
Near term period looks to remain socked in with clouds, and areas of 
drizzle, with saturated lower levels of the atmosphere trapped 
beneath inversion. Still the possibility of very light rain, 
particularly across northern zones later today, as a weak shortwave 
crosses the region in zonal flow. Have maintained slight chance to 
chance pops, mainly across the north and central zones, with patchy 
drizzle included area wide. Hard to exactly tell when -dz will end, 
but expect it to continue through at least dawn Tuesday, along with 
low ceilings. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

Weak lift and saturday low levels will allow areas of drizzle to
linger Monday night across the area, and perhaps into Tuesday
morning across northern counties. Attention then turns to a
southern system that looks to pass close enough for some rain
Wednesday across southwest VA and southern WV. Temps will
moderate through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM Sunday...

Superblend guidance was generally followed in the extended with
trend to delay any significant cold air into the area until the
following week. There remains uncertainty on how much of a push
the cold front gets this weekend, regardless Saturday looks 
wet.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 AM Monday...

Widespread MVFR conditions, with areas of drizzle expected for
much of the TAF period. Guidance is still indicating the
possibility of widespread IFR/LIFR stratus developing,
particularly after 09-12Z. For now, expecting at least local IFR
conditions, with most areas remaining low MVFR, and only
continued a mention of IFR at TAF sites KBKW and KCKB for now.
This may need to be updated to include more widespread IFR. Light
southwesterly surface winds.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. 

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May get lower visibilities in fog and/or
drizzle tonight. May have more widespread IFR ceilings Monday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 12/18/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    L    M    H    H    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR in stratus possibly lingering into Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...SL

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