Saturday, August 18, 2018, 3:17 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS63 KMKX 172257
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
557 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.UPDATE...

The lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms should continue 
to diminish over the next few hours. The remainder of the night 
will be quiet with some fog developing later tonight due to the 
light winds, clearing skies and damp conditions from the recent 
rainfall. 

Visible satellite imagery shows quite a lot of smoke from the SW 
Canada and NW U.S. wildfires dropping across the Upper Midwest and
western Great Lakes. Despite the mostly sunny conditions 
Saturday, the sky should look rather milky/hazy. 

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Expect areas of fog to develop late tonight and linger for a few
hours after sunrise on Saturday. KMKE should be ok, not seeing
much fog, but the fog will be more dense and widespread out 
toward KMSN. Other than the fog, expect VFR conditions through the
TAF period. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 337 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018) 

SHORT TERM...

Tonight And Saturday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Scattered showers and storms developed to the west and north of 
the forecast area this afternoon. This is where there is low level
confluence/convergence with modest mean layer CAPE. Could see 
some of this activity develop or move into portions of the 
forecast area until early this evening. The best shot would be the
activity moving southward into the far northern counties. Kept 
lower end PoPs across the area for this possibility. Relatively 
high precipitable water values, with the slow movement of any 
storms, may bring locally heavy rainfall.

Clouds should gradually dissipate this evening. Some fog is 
expected later tonight into early Saturday morning. The best shot 
will be in western parts of the area, and where the heaviest 
rainfall occurred over the past day or so. Patchy dense fog is 
possible in the river valleys and low lying areas, as winds will 
be light with dewpoints remaining in the lower to middle 60s. 
Given these conditions, the dense fog may get more widespread than
currently forecast, which later shifts will need to monitor.

Saturday looks like a nice day, with warm and humid conditions.
Highs should reach the lower to middle 80s across most of the
area. Onshore winds should keep highs a little cooler near the
lake.

Saturday night through Sunday night...Forecast confidence high.

A sfc ridge will remain over the Great Lakes through the weekend.
Warm and humid conditions are forecast, but no rain. 

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Forecast confidence medium. 

A large upper trough and organized sfc low will approach srn WI
and nrn IL from the Great Plains on Monday, and pass Monday night
into Tuesday. PWs will once again rise to 1.7-1.8 inches with
moist adiabatic soundings during the passage. The movement of the
system will be faster than this prior one, but still slow enough
for heavy rainfall and flooding concerns. Nice summer weather 
will then prevail for Thu-Fri. 

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

Scattered showers and a few storms may develop or move southward
into portions of the area until early this evening. Winds will 
generally be light and north to northeast into this evening, 
light and variable overnight, then light and northeast on 
Saturday.

Any lingering clouds should dissipate this evening. Fog is 
expected later tonight into early Saturday morning, especially in 
western parts of the area, including Madison. Values down to 
around 1 mile are forecast, with lower values possible at times. 
Dense fog with visibilities 1/4 or less is possible in low lying 
areas and river valleys, and may get more widespread than 
currently forecast.

Scattered to perhaps broken diurnal cumulus clouds are expected 
by early Saturday afternoon.

MARINE...

Any shower and thunderstorm activity should remain inland from
Lake Michigan into early this evening.

North to northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected into 
Saturday across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan. Waves of 2 
to 3 feet are expected during this period, perhaps lingering into 
Saturday night. Winds and waves will then subside on Sunday.

Increasing onshore winds and building waves may reach Small Craft
Advisory levels at times early next week.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Davis
Tonight/Saturday and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Saturday Night through Friday...Gehring

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