Monday, October 16, 2017, 8:30 PM EDT
Return to Local
Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCLE 162255
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
655 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will expand east across the area
tonight then set up over the southern Appalachians for the 
remainder of the week. An upper level ridge will strengthen 
aloft heading into next weekend with another round of above 
normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
No changes for the 630 update. Thick cloud cover in the west
appears to be diurnal in nature and is beginning to erode. Might
be enough to keep frost from developing overnight.

Original discussion...
High pressure will increase its influence across the area 
tonight. Dry air continues to settle over the region. So as 
skies clear and winds become light the potential for frost will 
exist. It currently appears that winds will be the lightest 
across the south and east so only have the advisory for that 
region. Patchy frost will be possible outside the advisory area.


High pressure remain in control on Tuesday but will be nudged 
southward as some jet energy moves across central Ontario. 
Other than increasing the winds slightly we expect no other 
significant impacts. 

Lows tonight near 40 NW Ohio and along the lakeshore, mid to 
lower 30s for inland locations. Warmer Tuesday with highs
ranging from the upper 50s inland NW PA to the upper 60s across
NW Ohio. Slightly warmer Tuesday night with lows ranging from
the upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will be in control through the short term. A 
weak short-wave trough will traverse across the moisture-stricken 
region Wednesday, which will help to keep southwesterly winds around 
10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. An upper level ridge begins to build 
over the region Thursday and Friday, which will result in light 
winds and continued sunny skies. High temperatures will be around 10 
degrees above normal by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The ridge aloft is progged to move east by early next week as a 
progressive trough and cold front push across the country. The ECMWF 
throws a wrench into long term forecast by cutting off the deep 
trough over the south central states and leaving a split flow with 
the front strung out to the northwest of the area. Not sure if this 
will happen and not sure that a weakening front till won't cross the 
area sometime Sunday night into Monday. The forecast will be close 
to the blended guidance but will keep the forecast pops a little 
below the guidance in the "chance" range given the uncertainty. 

Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm (highs in the 70s) until 
the front arrives and even then it looks like it will take a 
reinforcing short wave (Tuesday next week?) to bring seasonably cool 
air back to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as high
pressure builds over the area. Clouds will diminish overnight
and light NW winds will turn to the south.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in morning fog for inland locations Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light northwest winds this evening will become southerly overnight. 
Southwest winds will increase Tuesday, which should be strong enough 
for a Small Craft Advisory at the east end of the lake. Winds become 
a little more southerly Tuesday night into Wednesday and weaken 
considerably. South to southwest winds will continue through Friday, 
generally less than 10 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ013-014-
     020>023-029>033-036>038-047.
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB/Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mottice
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Mottice

Support USWX by starting your Amazon purchase here.