Monday, September 26, 2016, 6:24 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
||Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCTP 260952
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
552 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016
A cold front will move through quickly later this afternoon and
early tonight. After a dry day or two, the forecast becomes rather
wet with a cut off upper low .
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low crud creeping up from the south has already made it up into
happy valley. While coverage is not 100pct yet, the moisture will
continue to flow into the mid-state from the south. Thus, temps
will likely stay cool - and may turn out colder than normal today
- especially in the Susq Valley. The front continues to hurry up a
little with each run. The showers will be into the far western
highlands a few hours before sunset - as they are already into NW
OH. There could be a little drizzle fall out of the low deck as
it thickens over the area.
Quite a pronounced wind shift will occur as the front passes. The
shear aloft and veering with height may make some stronger storms
in the west. The stability in the central and eastern parts of the
area and the time of fropa (generally after dark) will make it
much more difficult to get deep convection and thunder. It does
appear to dry out after the front, but some low clouds may form in
the upslope flow into the Alleghenies. The front will be off to
the southeast by 09z. However, some showers may linger in the far
SE through sunrise. QPF is a rather large but even spread between
2 tenths to almost an inch across the board at every site on the
SREF plumes. Will hang onto the idea of 0.25-0.75 inches for the
storm total - so there has to be some decent convective component
to the rain.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Wind out of the west/southwest and temps will be rather normal,
allowing things to get right back to dry. But, this may
(probably) will not last long.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The mid week period will bring the large upper level low through
the Great Lakes and down into the Ohio Valley. The low will
slowly progress eastward with model PWATS increasing through the
latter half of the week. Couple this with the Southwesterly flow
and will allow for an increase of POPS Through the second half of
the week and into the weekend. This will make the forecast a
little milder at night and slightly cooler in the day, but very
nearly normal. Have kept up with the overall trend of increasing
POPs for the latter half of the week and into the weekend. The
upper low is currently progged to lift northeast, but probably not
until then end of the long term period.
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the region will provide clear skies and light
winds early this morning. However, as the high slips off the Mid
Atlantic coast later this morning, an increasingly moist se flow
will likely cause low cigs to creep northward from Virginia into
the Laurel Highlands (KJST). Latest model soundings support the
idea of IFR cigs at KJST and mvfr cigs at KAOO by around 09Z.
The odds of IFR cigs at KJST should decrease by late morning Monday,
as the wind shifts from se to a downsloping south wind. Elsewhere,
stratus should expand to cover most of the region, with MVFR or
low VFR cigs anticipated based on model soundings. A cold front
will approach from the west late in the day, but expect associated
showers and thunderstorms to hold off until the evening hours. All
airfields appear likely to experience a period of at least MVFR
reductions as band of frontal showers (and possible tsra) push
eastward across central Pa between 00Z-06Z Tuesday.
Tue...No sig wx expected.
Wed...Showers/cig reductions possible late.
Thu-Fri...Sct showers/cig reductions possible, esp w mountains.