Saturday, August 29, 2015, 2:54 PM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Sat, Aug 29, 1:53pm EDT
FXUS61 KCTP 291753
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
153 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION. VERY WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... 
SCT/BKN CU OVER THE HILLS WILL MOST LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED THIS
EVENING WITHOUT ANY GAINING ENOUGH STRENGTH/HEIGHT TO ATTAIN
SHOWER STATUS. DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE L60S OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE
REGION. BUT THEY HAVE ALSO DRIED/MIXED OUT TO THE L50S IN THE NWRN
MTNS. NIL POPS STILL GOOD...AS ANY SMALL ECHO WHICH SHOWS UP ON
RADAR MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE GROUND. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... 
SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS - WHICH SHOULD BE OF LESSER
COVERAGE THAN SAT MORNING. THEN...THE TEMPS RISE EVEN
BETTER...ADDING ANOTHER 3-4F ONTO SAT/S MAXES.

RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS STARTING TO GET PRESSED A LITTLE TO
THE EAST BY AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND SLIGHT FEED OF GULF
MOISTURE. THUS...SUPPORT IN THE FORMS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE ON SUNDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT KEEP
THEM MAINLY OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA AS AXIS OF THE DYING
TROUGH. SREF POPS WAY TOO AMBITIOUS. POPS FROM MOS ARE CLOSER TO
BUT STILL A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE WILL
ALLOW FOR. WILL KEEP THEM 50 OR LESS NW AND CLOSE TO OR BELOW 20
IN THE SE HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER THAT...THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 12Z GEFS
SHOWS 850HPA TEMPS RUNNING +1SD ACROSS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WHICH
WILL TRANSLATE TO ABOVE-NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS LOW.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF INTERESTING FEATURES THAT BEAR WATCHING FOR 
LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST IS THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH ARE FCST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL/GA COAST BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TRY TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD
INTO PA. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT 
SOME MODELS BRING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT THURS/FRI. THIS 
FEATURE COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIURNAL CU AROUND THE REGION SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SO THE WIND SHOULD STILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS MUCH AS IT DID SAT
A.M. SINCE DEWPOINTS STAY IN THE U50S TO L60S...AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKY OVERHEAD. THE LONE PLACE WHERE THERE COULD BE A PASSING SHOWER
OVERNIGHT WOULD BE KBFD. HOWEVER...THE CHC IS SO LOW THAT ONLY A
VCSH IS NECESSARY.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL TRY
TO WEAKEN THE BIG RIDGE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
DYNAMICS AND HIGHER TEMPS...THERE SHOULD WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA FORM
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY AFTN. WITH THE TIME OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY/COVERAGE NOT UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PD...WHILE JUST BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD...WILL THEN HINT AT THE
SCT TSRA EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN WITH A PROB30 AT KBFD FOR THE FAR
END OF THE FCST PD. ALL BUT KMDT/KLNS DO HAVE A 20-30PCT CHC OF A
SHRA SUNDAY AFTN. THE CONVECTION WILL BE FUELED MAINLY BY DAYTIME
HEAT AND SHOULD DWINDLE THROUGH THE EVENING. MONDAY WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. THEN THE LARGE RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD WILL
JOIN UP WITH THE RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST/WRN ATLANTIC...PINCHING
OFF ANY TRACE OF THE TROUGH. THUS...MAINLY HOT...HUMID WEATHER
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHC OF SHOWERS WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE NEW
WEEK. 

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY PM SHRA/TSRA POSS.
TUE-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
AVIATION...DANGELO

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