Thursday, November 15, 2018, 8:35 PM EST
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCAR 150541
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1241 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region overnight through
Thursday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest 
Thursday night into Friday then track into the Maritimes
Friday night. Cold with scattered snow showers this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1240am update...
1038mb sfc high located ovr far northeast NY state wl build east
thru the night and allow winds to relax. Where winds can
decouple acrs far nwrn zones, potential exists for temps to drop
down twd 0 by mrng with existing snowpack and clr skies. Most
areas wl lkly dip into the single digits by mrng. Only minor
tweaks needed with this update with all eyes turning twd the
south as impending winter storm is beginning to take shape.

Previous Discussion...
Thu should begin fair with much lgtr winds as sfc hi pres 
crests the FA from the W, with increasing hi cldnss from SSW to 
NNE late in the day in advc of the next low pres system from the
SE states.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Storm still on track for Friday with no significant change in
guidance over the last 12 hours. Still enough spread to greatly
impact the sensible weather in regards to total snowfall,
especially on the coast and across the far Northern Maine.
Essentially if the the further off the coast solution comes in
(GFS) camp, then the Downeast coast will get more snow then
forecasted. If the consensus forecast comes in, then still 
looks like a mix on the Downeast coast cutting down totals with 
higher amounts pushing further north into Maine. One thing that 
is certain is it looks like the first plowable snow for the 
Bangor region and the majority of Downeast with the Friday 
morning commute being impacted by snow. Low quickly pushes out 
Friday evening, with lingering snow across Northern Maine until 
midnight. Saturday will have weak cyclonic flow aloft over the 
area with some light snow shower activity for western areas and 
high temps getting into the upper 20s and 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence looks to be below average late this weekend
leading into Thanksgiving week. What we are confident about is 
that this period will have well below avg temperatures with a 
few shots of cold weather. In general the mean 500mb trough will
stay entrenched across the Northeast CONUS with multiple 500mb 
shortwaves moving through with weak waves developing on the 
surface cold fronts. In general western mountains will keep 
light snow shower activity at times through this period. Overall
didn't feel enough confidence on timing of pops, so broad 
brushed with some higher pops over the terrain and on Monday as
the potential for another weak storm still exists. Overall we 
should run 10 to 15 degrees below average for this period, with 
the chance for a slight warm up on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR at all terminals next 24 hours. MVFR cigs
possible at FVE for the next 1-2 hours in low-level stratocu.
Restrictions likely to develop after 06z Fri.

SHORT TERM: Significant aviation impacts possible on Friday with
snow causing low vis and ceilings to impact all TAF Terminals.
Conditions will improve by Friday night with no significant
aviation impacts expected this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have transitioned the Gale Warning to a Small Craft 
Advisory valid through 6 AM for the intracoastal waters with
this update. Have also extended the Gale Warning on the 
remainder of the waters through 4 AM. A pd of less than SCA 
winds/seas will follow for late Thu morn thru the aftn. Small 
craft advisory conditions will then develop later Thursday 
night.

SHORT TERM: Possible GALE conditions on Friday as a coastal low
moves up the coast and crosses the Gulf of Maine during the day
on Friday. Seas will build to 10 feet over the outer coastal
waters on a E to NE wind.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Friday night 
     for MEZ004>006-010-011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for 
     ANZ052.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar/VJN
Short Term...Dumont
Long Term...Dumont
Aviation...Farrar/VJN/Dumont
Marine...Farrar/VJN/Dumont

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