Wednesday, October 18, 2017, 3:29 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCTP 171054
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
654 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
After a chilly start to the week, a warming trend will return 
above average temperatures through the upcoming weekend with no
rainfall expected. The dry spell will likely come to an end 
early next week, followed by a pattern change favoring a more 
sustained period of seasonably cooler weather through the end of
October.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The coldest temps at daybreak are in the mid 20s over north-
central PA in McKean/Potter/Elk counties. GOES-16 fog channel 
also shows valley fog in the NW Alleghenies. 

A chilly, frosty morning will be followed by a bright autumn 
day with plenty of sunshine and temperatures near- average for 
mid October. Clear and calm tonight although not as cool with 
lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Warming trend gets underway with more beautiful fall weather.
High temperatures will run +5 to +10 degrees above climate 
norms. Nighttime temperatures (in the 40s) will be seasonably
cool. The dry spell continues with any pcpn fcst to stay well 
to the north Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure re-establishes itself over the area on Friday
before migrating off the Mid Atlantic coast this weekend.
Unseasonably warm and dry wx is expected through Sunday. Most
guidance now supports emerging deep GOMEX inflow surging 
northward along/ahead of potent cold front to fuel a swath of 
moderate to potentially heavy rainfall next Mon-Tue. There are
slight timing differences with the frontal progression as one 
might expect at this range. Despite this, the key message
appears to be a wet one for early next week. Ensemble systems
are signaling a pattern change in the wake of this system which
should favor a more sustained period of |seasonably| cooler 
weather through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure building into the region will bring clear skies
and light wind overnight. Some patchy valley fog is expected 
to form over western Pa toward dawn, as SREF and downscaled NAM 
suggest. However, odds are low of vis reductions at any of the 
central PA airfields. 

Any patchy fog should burn off by mid morning, then there is a
near certainty of widespread VFR conditions the rest of the day
with high pressure over the state. 

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri-Sat...Patchy AM valley fog possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ026>028-035-
036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Gartner

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