Friday, July 20, 2018, 8:17 PM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KBGM 200650
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
250 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain clear skies and seasonable
temperatures through Friday night. Patchy early morning valley 
fog is likely around the Southern Tier and Delaware valley
regions into Saturday morning. Gradual warming will occur into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure will be in control much of this time with little
to consider besides diurnal temperature and dewpoint
trends...some high clouds at times, and light winds. Generally
followed a blend of the short term guidance, although leaned
harder on the Canadian GEM dewpoint fields tomorrow afternoon
which seem to capture the mixed boundary layer the best.
Temperatures tonight will be a touch warmer than last night,
with highs on Friday about 4-8 degrees warmer than today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday will be primarily dry through early afternoon before a
system in the mid Atlantic region brings chance/slight POPS into
northeast Pennsylvania, the southern tier and the western
Catskills. Models not showing much instability either surface
based or aloft so will not mention any thunder. Highs will range
in the mid to upper 70s with lower 80s in the Lake Plain.

Saturday night/Sunday...A fairly tight low pressure circulation
both at the surface and in the mid levels will track from the
mid Atlantic region north to the vicinity of the western 
Catskills by Sunday morning then north into southern Ontario by
afternoon. Will carry likely POPS Saturday night primarily east
of I81 then likely POPS Sunday morning in the northern forecast
area then just chance by afternoon as the system lifts north. 
Will include a chance for thunder both Saturday night and Sunday
due to mid level instability Saturday night and surface based 
instability on Sunday. Highs will range in the middle 70s to 
lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

259 AM UPDATE...Upper ridge stalls the progress of the Eastern
US trough keeping the area in a deep southerly flow of moisture 
through the long term. Daily showers and thunderstorms are 
expected with few changes. Made some minor adjustments to the 
previous forecast toward the latest guidance, but basically very
little has changed for this wet period. Previous discussion 
below. 


The extended period looks rather wet as an upper level low drops
south through the Tennessee Valley and into the Gulf States 
while an upper level ridge remains in the western Atlantic. 
These features will produce a deep southerly flow of very moist 
air across the entire eastern United States. Precipitable water 
values through much of the week will be around 2 inches. 
Coverage is expected to be more widespread during the daylight 
hours due to diurnal instability. Will carry chance POPS for the
nighttime period and likely POPS during the day. A northern 
stream upper level trough will drop into eastern Canada late in
the period with associated surface cold front likely crossing 
the area on Thursday. Once this front pushes through the very 
wet period will be over. Even though current antecedent 
conditions are dry the long duration of possible wet weather 
will need to be monitored for possible hydro problems.

Highs through the period will be slightly above normal while 
overnight temperatures will range 5 to 10 degrees above normal 
and feel rather muggy with high dew points.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours at
all taf sites. Mostly clear skies and light south-southeast 
winds (less than 12 kts) will persist through the period. Sct to
bkn high clouds (20-30k ft agl) will slowly move in from west to
east after 20/21-24z.

Patchy light fog may form INVOF KELM between 9z and 11z this
morning, with brief visibility restrictions of 2SM to 4SM
possible.

Outlook... 

Friday night through Saturday...VFR ceilings. Locally dense
valley fog possible near KELM and KAVP.

Saturday night through Tuesday...Periods of showers and
thunderstorms. Restrictions likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DGM/RRM
AVIATION...DJP/MJM

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