Monday, August 20, 2018, 1:13 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KGYX 200144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
944 PM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

High pressure will continue to build in from the northeast
overnight and will hold over the region through Tuesday. Low
pressure will move northeast through western Quebec Tuesday
night and will drive a trailing cold front toward the region.
The front will move east through the region on Wednesday. High
pressure will gradually build in from the west Wednesday night
through Friday.


930 pm Update: Quiet evening with comfortable temps/dewpoints.
Offshore clouds continue drifting southwest and now skimming
many coastal areas as the light onshore enely flow continues.
Made some minor adjustments for this SC layer of clouds reaching
coastal areas. A few of the models picking up on this moist
layer so used a blend of model and satellite data to formulate
sky forecast rest of tonight. As always, input latest obs data 
into this latest ESTF update. 

720 pm Update: Minor ESTF update inputting latest mesonet data with
no changes needed to forecast attm. 

Previous Discussion:
High pressure will continue to build in from the northeast 
overnight. Expect diurnal clouds across the region to melt away 
with loss of heating leaving just high and mid level clouds 
brushing southern zones overnight. Looking for another round of 
valley fog in the north and Connecticut Valley after midnight. 
Lows will range from the upper 40s and lower 50s north and mid 
to upper 50s south.


Monday will feature a mix of sun and clouds across the region 
as high pressure crests over the region. High temperatures will 
generally range through the 70s.

Fair weather will continue Monday night as high pressure remains
parked over the region. We see another round of valley fog with
lows similar to tonight's readings.


Overview: Upper trough and surface low pressure system cross the 
region Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure and quiet weather 
builds in through the rest of the period.

Hazards: Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, and while some 
parameters will be favorable, it is too early to determine whether 
there will be a severe threat.

Dry and cool conditions will gradually become more warm and 
humid during the day on Tuesday as winds will become 
southeasterly ahead of an approaching upper-level trough and its
associated surface low. Rain chances will hold off during the 
day but will gradually increase from southwest to northeast 
Tuesday evening as the system nears the CWA. This activity will 
continue through Wednesday morning and should be mostly 
scattered showers, but we could see a thunderstorm or two as 
well. The better chance for thunderstorms looks to be during the
day on Wednesday ahead of the cold frontal passage. There is 
some potential for strong to severe storms to develop, but 
there is low confidence in a specific severe threat at this 
point in time. Any precipitation will gradually taper off from 
west to east Wednesday evening as the surface low lifts away to
the north.

The rest of the long term period looks rather quiet. Winds become 
more northwesterly on the back side of the departing system which 
will dry us out once again on Thursday. Surface high pressure 
eventually settles to our east into Friday with winds becoming 
westerly to southwesterly and holds there through Saturday night.
No significant precipitation is expected from Thursday through 
the end of the forecast period.

High temperatures will be mostly seasonal to slightly above average: 
generally in the 70s through Thursday and in the 70s to lower
80s on Friday and Saturday. Lows will be warmest on Tuesday
night (upper 50s to mid 60s) and cooler through the rest of the
period after the frontal passage (generally in the 50s).


Short Term...VFR with areas of IFR/LIFR ceilings and vsby in
morning valley fog.

Long Term...VFR conditions expected except possible MVFR/IFR 
ceilings and vsby in showers or thunderstorms Tues night and 


Short Term...No flags.

Long Term...We will approach SCA conditions on Wednesday due to
building seas with persistent SE fetch. Conditions improve on
Thursday under NW flow.





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