Monday, December 18, 2017, 7:38 AM EST
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KBGM 180833
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
333 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will trend milder, for the next couple of days. 
Weak disturbances, will bring the chance for occasional light 
rain or wet snow. A brief return of seasonably cold weather, is
then expected for the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Local radar returns show some weak activity primarily across 
the northern forecast area but not much occurring at the 
surface. Later this morning through early evening warm air
advection forcing will increase from the northern Finger Lakes 
region to the western Mohawk Valley as weak low pressure moves 
from central Michigan to northern New York State. Will continue
to advertise high chance/low likely pops here with primarily 
dry conditions from the southern tier through northeast 
Pennsylvania. Temperatures will moderate today under southwest 
flow ranging from the middle 30s in northern Oneida County to 
lower 40s in the valley areas of the southern tier and northeast
Pennsylvania. Precipitation will be a mix of rain and snow 
showers through tonight with just snow forecast for northern 
Oneida County. Snow accumulations through tonight will be around
2 inches in northern Oneida County with the rest of the area 
little or no accumulation. Lows overnight will range from the
lower to middle 30s.

Tuesday...Upper level trof will move into eastern Canada
providing continued forcing over the northern areas. Best chance
for precipitation will be during the afternoon. Will increase
pops during the afternoon into the likely category over Oneida
County with just chance for much of central New York and dry in
northeast Pennsylvania. Temperatures will rise into the lower 
to middle 40s under continued southwest flow with precipitation 
falling as rain showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
145 PM update...
A weak trof associated with a Canadian low pressure system will
move across NY Monday night. Light snow showers are forecast,
with up to an inch of accumulation over Oneida County, where
temperatures should be colder and terrain will provide lift.

925mb temperatures will be near +3C along the NY/PA border, and
this will allow for surface maximums in the 40s, with a
scattering of rain showers.

The cold front passes early Tuesday evening, changing rain
showers back over to light snow showers. A lake response is
expected over Oneida County.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
150 PM update...

A brisk zonal flow is forecast for much of the long term period.
The polar jet should confine most of the cold air to Canada, so
above-normal temperatures are forecast for NY and PA.

Ongoing lake effect will come to an end late Wednesday. Wind
trajectories puts the band over Northern Oneida County. 

High pressure builds in for Thursday, but the zonal flow will
usher another storm system into Michigan early Friday, with a 
warm front pushing across NY/PA. Long-term soundings suggest the
possibility for freezing rain, but it is much too early to 
commit to precipitation type.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak upper level disturbances combined with warm air advection
forcing will lead to deteriorating conditions early this 
morning with the flight category generally falling into  
alternate required with occasional IFR at BGM between 10Z-14Z. 
At KRME conditions will drop to IFR and persist through TAF 
valid time. Not much precipitation expected except for 
KRME/KSYR where MVFR/IFR mixed rain and snow will be possible 
primarily this morning. At KELM/KAVP conditions this afternoon 
may briefly improve to low VFR before falling back into the MVFR
category this evening.

Light E/SE winds becoming southwest this afternoon around 5-8
knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Probable restrictions in lower ceilings, along with 
rain or snow showers. 

Wednesday...Restrictions possible again in lake effect snow
showers, mainly KSYR and KRME.

Thursday...VFR.

Friday...Restrictions possibly developing again in mixed
precipitation.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM

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