Monday, October 21, 2019, 9:17 PM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KBTV 211137
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
737 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building into the region this morning will provide 
fair and dry weather through mid-day Tuesday before a frontal system 
brings a period of unsettled conditions late Tuesday through 
Wednesday. Ahead of the front, gusty southeasterly winds are 
expected Tuesday, followed by a widespread soaking rainfall along 
the frontal passage through Wednesday morning. Showery and cloudy 
conditions continue through Wednesday afternoon before drier weather 
arrives Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...Best day of the week will be today as
surface high pressure and a weak ridge aloft crest over the region.
After dense morning valley fog burns off, sunny skies are expected
for the afternoon with light winds and highs a good deal above
normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

While dry conditions will persist tonight into early Tuesday, skies
will become increasingly cloudy as an occluded system currently over
the central CONUS tracks into the Great Lakes. Light boundary winds
early this evening will give way to an increasingly low-level
south/southeasterly jet which will keep locations from the Champlain
Valley westward relatively mild in the mid/upper 40s, while east of
the Green Mountains a lighter wind regime will allow temps to fall
into the upper 30s and lower 40s. As the occluded front advances
towards the North Country on Tuesday, downsloping winds along the
western slopes of the Green Mountains and northern Adirondacks will
develop with gusts of 25-40 mph expected from mid-day onward until
the onset of precipitation which will be across the St. Lawrence
Valley just before the evening rush, and not into Vermont until
after sunset. Highs Tuesday under thickening cloud cover will range
through the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...Rain will quickly spread from west to east
Tuesday evening/overnight as an occluded front pushes across the
North Country. A strong south jet will cause moisture to surge
northward ahead of the front, with PWATs of 1+ inch possible. Rain
may be moderate to briefly heavy at times overnight, but the front
should be progressive enough to preclude any significant flooding
concerns. The front will move east of our region Wednesday morning,
bringing the steady rain to an end. However, scattered showers will
continue through much of the day, particularly over the higher
terrain of the northern Greens and Adirondacks as winds turn to the
west southwest post-front, allowing lake enhanced moisture to stream
into the higher elevations. Lows will mainly be in the 40s Tuesday
night, followed by seasonal highs in the 50s on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...We'll see a brief break in the
precipitation Wednesday night with high pressure builds to our
south. We'll be under southwest flow with several shortwaves to move
overhead through the period. Models are having a hard time agreeing
on the placement, timing, and strength of these shortwaves; hence
while there will be several chances for precipitation through latter
half of the week into the weekend, the details are still in question
at this time. Have stayed with mainly chance PoPs given this
uncertainty. Temperatures do look to cool down a bit toward the end
of the week, especially over the weekend. Wouldn't be surprised if
the higher elevations see some light snow mix in with any rain
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...VLIFR fog will continue to impact all
sites except KPBG and KRUT through 13-15. Thereafter, then 
remainder of the period will be SKC/VFR with light N-NE winds 
4-7kts turning southeast after 06Z tonight..


Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Chance RA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Lahiff

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