Monday, October 16, 2017, 6:12 PM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KRLX 160536
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
136 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses through this evening. Much cooler tonight 
into Tuesday. Dry high pressure with a warming trend for the 
middle and latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 825 PM Sunday...Updated PoP again with showers coming
across the area to reflect current radar and meso model trends.
Also, took any mention of thunder out of the forecast with the
sun going down the instability will be too weak.  

As of 350 PM Sunday...Just made a quick adjustment to get PoP 
more aligned with current Radar as cold front enters the Ohio
Valley.


As of 215 PM Sunday...

Cold front traverses forecast area this evening with line of 
convective showers. These convective showers should start to 
become more active through the late afternoon and early evening 
from modest daytime heating taking place so late in this 
season. CAPE profiles, flow aloft, and sfc gradients point to a 
potential for about 30 to 35 kt max gust potential as the front 
moves through, reaching the eastern mountains late this evening.
Cold air advection along with upslope flow should lead to some 
post frontal clouds remaining in place with areas of fog in 
valleys that have decoupled boundary layers. Temperatures will 
be noticeably cooler to start the work week as cold air 
advection continues for Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Sunday...

Much cooler and very dry high pressure will will settle over the
area Monday night, with clear skies and calm winds to help drop
temperatures even more. Thus, much of the northern mountains
will be prone to a freeze Monday night, while the remainder of 
the area will be prone to frost. This will be highlighted in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook product. Thereafter, high pressure
continues with a warming trend into mid week under lots of
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 PM Sunday...

Typical pattern for autumn with dry west to northwest flow
pattern aloft and extensive high pressure below. Thus, this
period will continue to be dry with plenty of sunshine, leading
to a continued warming trend, with afternoon highs above normal
for the later half of the week. Nights will still be cool under
good radiational cooling, leading to a wide range in diurnal
temperatures this period. Relative humidities in the afternoons
will trend lower, but the good news is, winds should remain 
relatively light, thereby negating the fire weather threat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 755 PM Sunday...

Widespread MVFR cigs behind a departing cold front, will
generally lift/scatter out to VFR after 15-18Z. Otherwise,
northwesterly winds, generally gusty at times, with gusts in the
teen to lower 20 kt range across the higher terrain.

After 00Z, winds will go light to calm, with patchy river valley
fog possible generally after 08Z. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z 
TUESDAY... 
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Possible IFR ceilings in mountains through
early Monday morning. 

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 10/16/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    L

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
Dense overnight and morning valley fog this week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...SL

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