Sunday, July 22, 2018, 8:17 PM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KRLX 222326
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
726 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A stacked low pressure system overhead gradually weakens 
through mid week. A cold front arrives late in the week week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 600 PM Sunday...
Current forecast on track. No changes needed. 

As of 240 PM Sunday...

Stacked low pressure centered over the Tri-State will continue
to gradually move southward overnight tonight and tomorrow.
Bands of showers will continue to rotate around this system into
tonight with the areas along the Ohio river, SE OH and NE KY 
seeing the best chances along the the extreme eastern mountains.
There will be a gradual min in Pops across central sections of
the area and this is where the best chances for fog to develop
during the early morning hours.

Monday the low continues to gradually shift southward and bands
will continue over the area. Increased Pops over the area with 
plenty of moisture, afternoon heating and left over boundaries.
Showers and storms will be more scattered in nature as the low
continues to drift southward and away from the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM...

Models have changed some in the progression of the pesky upper low 
that has been around this weekend. Runs up through yesterday tried 
to sink the closed low south into the Gulf and separate it from the 
overall 500mb trough to the north. Now, they are gradually opening 
the low into a trough Tuesday and Wednesday and then kicking it out 
to the northeast as a broader 500mb trough approaches from the west 
Wednesday night into Thursday. This will also drive a cold front 
through. This will keep periods of showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast through most of the short term. Southeast flow may
create some downslope drying across the western slopes, but
did not get too cute drawing that in with the upper level synoptic
change in the models between yesterday and today.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

Surface high pressure should be in the vicinity Friday into the 
weekend, but with an upper level trough over the Great Lakes, kept 
some slight chance to chance POPs going. Temperatures will be 
fairly seasonable for late July. Used a consensus blend through 
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 725 PM Sunday...

Upper level low will continue to rotate across the area, with
periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Bulk of
shower/thunderstorm activity will taper off across the area
overnight, but will still be possible, particularly across
southeast Ohio, northeast KY, and the mountainous sites, with
brief MVFR restrictions.

Otherwise, after 03-06Z, areas of IFR/LIFR fog and low stratus 
expected to form and linger through at least 13Z, possibly 
longer across mountainous spots such as at site KBKW. Mainly VFR
conditions after 14-15Z, although showers and thunderstorms 
will increase again particularly after 18Z, with brief 
restrictions expected. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Intensity and development of fog and low
stratus tonight may vary from forecast. 

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    M    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    M    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in fog or low stratus early Tuesday and Wednesday 
mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SL

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