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Area Forecast Discussion
||Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KGYX 170204 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
904 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018
A coastal low will exit into the maritimes this evening. An
upper level disturbance will cross the region Saturday. Canadian
high pressure builds into the region Sunday before a fast
moving area of low pressure develops over the region Sunday
night. An Arctic front will cross the region late Monday,
followed by high pressure building into the region through
midweek. A large storm may form along the southeastern United
States coastline late in the week and into next weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Update...No major changes...with only minor adjustments to PoP
as upper trof swings thru the forecast area. Some light snow
continues across parts of Midcoast and W central ME...and will
exit the forecast area in the next couple of hours. After that
we transition to W flow and upslope snow showers for the
remainder of the night.
Previous discussion...Coastal low exits into the maritimes
this evening with drier air and clearing to slowly take place
from southwest to northeast. Used a blend of models for
overnight lows which should be mostly in the 20s due to clouds
and some west winds.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A very weak clipper moves through the fast moving westerly flow
Sat and Sat night producing some scattered snow showers mainly
in the mountains. A colder Canadian air mass will follow behind
this system Sat night so overnight lows will range from the
teens in the mountains to mid 20s elsewhere.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A period of light snow is possible late Sunday night into
Monday as a weak disturbance forms ahead of an approaching
trough. More Arctic air will filter into the region behind this
departing system during the afternoon hours Monday.
Cyclogenesis continues to our east Monday night into Tuesday.
With this feature, models have trended towards a broad period of
cold air advection Monday night into Tuesday with upslope snow
showers mainly confined to the high terrain in northwest facing
areas. Unseasonably cold conditions will continue with readings
once again approaching zero in northern areas by Tuesday night.
On Wednesday, the European and Canadian models drive a low up
the Saint Lawrence River Valley and across northern Maine,
setting up the stage for another major shot of cold air late in
the week. GFS more subdued with a broad period of warm air
advection and overunning occurring. Very different impacts from
these two differing solutions. For now, will hedge towards
teens to lower 20s in the cold air by Thursday night, still
below normal for this time of the year.
Indications continue that a large and slow moving storm may
form along the southeastern seaboard late next week and into the
weekend. Will continue to monitor as we will be entering a high
period of astronomical tides.
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Conditions improving to VFR this afternoon into
tonight...except in the mountains where MVFR conditions may
persist in snow showers. Gusty northwest winds will develop will
continue into the evening as an ocean low exits into the
Long Term...Areas of MVFR conditions possible in periods of
light snow Sunday night into Monday, especially over southern
Short Term...Gales will continue into early this evening and
will then diminish to SCA conditions. Seas over the outer waters
will stay high through Sat so SCA conditions will continue over
those area. Conditions in the bays should be below SCA
conditions by later tonight and continue through Sat.
Long Term...Strong, gusty northwesterly winds may approach gale
force as the gradient increases Tuesday behind a departing low
pressure system. Large, long period waves may form along the
east coast late next week and into the weekend if a storm forms
in the Atlantic.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for ANZ150>154.