Saturday, November 17, 2018, 1:42 AM EST
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KGYX 170204 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
904 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

A coastal low will exit into the maritimes this evening. An 
upper level disturbance will cross the region Saturday. Canadian
high pressure builds into the region Sunday before a fast 
moving area of low pressure develops over the region Sunday 
night. An Arctic front will cross the region late Monday, 
followed by high pressure building into the region through 
midweek. A large storm may form along the southeastern United
States coastline late in the week and into next weekend.


Update...No major changes...with only minor adjustments to PoP
as upper trof swings thru the forecast area. Some light snow
continues across parts of Midcoast and W central ME...and will
exit the forecast area in the next couple of hours. After that
we transition to W flow and upslope snow showers for the
remainder of the night.

Previous discussion...Coastal low exits into the maritimes 
this evening with drier air and clearing to slowly take place 
from southwest to northeast. Used a blend of models for 
overnight lows which should be mostly in the 20s due to clouds 
and some west winds.


A very weak clipper moves through the fast moving westerly flow
Sat and Sat night producing some scattered snow showers mainly
in the mountains. A colder Canadian air mass will follow behind
this system Sat night so overnight lows will range from the
teens in the mountains to mid 20s elsewhere.


A period of light snow is possible late Sunday night into 
Monday as a weak disturbance forms ahead of an approaching 
trough. More Arctic air will filter into the region behind this
departing system during the afternoon hours Monday.

Cyclogenesis continues to our east Monday night into Tuesday. 
With this feature, models have trended towards a broad period of
cold air advection Monday night into Tuesday with upslope snow 
showers mainly confined to the high terrain in northwest facing 
areas. Unseasonably cold conditions will continue with readings 
once again approaching zero in northern areas by Tuesday night. 

On Wednesday, the European and Canadian models drive a low up
the Saint Lawrence River Valley and across northern Maine,
setting up the stage for another major shot of cold air late in
the week. GFS more subdued with a broad period of warm air
advection and overunning occurring. Very different impacts from 
these two differing solutions. For now, will hedge towards 
teens to lower 20s in the cold air by Thursday night, still 
below normal for this time of the year.

Indications continue that a large and slow moving storm may 
form along the southeastern seaboard late next week and into the
weekend. Will continue to monitor as we will be entering a high
period of astronomical tides.


Short Term...Conditions improving to VFR this afternoon into
tonight...except in the mountains where MVFR conditions may 
persist in snow showers. Gusty northwest winds will develop will
continue into the evening as an ocean low exits into the 

Long Term...Areas of MVFR conditions possible in periods of
light snow Sunday night into Monday, especially over southern


Short Term...Gales will continue into early this evening and
will then diminish to SCA conditions. Seas over the outer waters
will stay high through Sat so SCA conditions will continue over
those area. Conditions in the bays should be below SCA
conditions by later tonight and continue through Sat.

Long Term...Strong, gusty northwesterly winds may approach gale
force as the gradient increases Tuesday behind a departing low
pressure system. Large, long period waves may form along the
east coast late next week and into the weekend if a storm forms
in the Atlantic.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for ANZ150>154.




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