Tuesday, August 21, 2018, 9:51 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KGYX 211306

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
906 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

A ridge of high pressure over northern New England will 
gradually retreat into the Canadian Maritimes today. An upper 
level trough will move east towards the region late tonight and 
Wednesday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms as a 
cold front moves through. This cold front will usher cooler and 
drier air for late this week before a gradual warming trend 
occurs over the upcoming weekend. A frontal system will bring a 
chance for showers very late in the weekend and into early next 


905 AM...Dense fog advisory has expired. Still, with very light
flow, some fog may linger thru much of the morning in some 
spots, before it dissipates by midday. Otherwise forecast is in
good shape. 

Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the entire forecast area.
Fog is patchy out there, but seems to be affecting enough of the
area to warrant a broader advisory. It should dissipate by 9AM.

Today will start out mostly sunny and cool in spite of some 
patchy early morning fog. Winds become southerly today as high 
pressure moves off to the northeast. This will start to pull a 
little better moisture into the area with clouds on the increase
late in the day. Temperatures top out in the 70s, coolest near 
the coast.


Upper trough moves into the eastern Great Lakes tonight with a 
surface low tracking through Ontario and into Quebec. A trailing
cold/occluded front will push its way eastward toward our area.
With the surface low tracking well to the north of our area, it
looks like warm advection shower activity will be a little more
limited than earlier thought with the northern areas the most 
likely to see some rain tonight. However, with the onshore 
southeast wind developing and increasing low level moisture, we 
could see areas of drizzle on the coastal plain tonight. The 
front moves through during the day on Wednesday and will likely 
result in a line of showers and storms along it as it moves 
through. Wind flow around this system is strong enough to 
support organized updrafts, though instability will be primarily
elevated. Cannot rule out severe thunderstorms at this time, as
indicated by the SPC convective outlook for the period. 
However, the threat will be a bit limited and focused in the 
southern part of the area.


The chances for any leftover showers will continue to lower
Wednesday night from southwest to northeast as as the upper
level system retreats through Canada. This will allow for cooler
and drier air to pour into the region on developing northwest

Upper 60s expected in northern areas with 70s elsewhere on
Thursday as high pressure builds east from the Ohio Valley. H8
temperatures will drop into the +8C to +10C during this period.

By Friday, a milder southwesterly flow will begin to develop.
This will lead to a warming trend with temperatures mainly in
the lower 80s outside the mountains.

The 00Z model suite suggests rain-free conditions will continue
Saturday into early Sunday as this ridge slips off the eastern 
seaboard. Expect seasonably mild temperatures.

The next chance for any precipitation will occur late Sunday 
over western sections as a weak trough crosses the region. A 
stalled out front over northern Maine may bring a few scattered 
showers to the rest of the region by Monday.


Short Term...VFR expected today after any morning fog burns off.
Onshore flow develops today and could result in some lower level
clouds moving in off the Gulf of Maine tonight. Should be cloudy
all day Tuesday with ceilings likely in the IFR to MVFR range.
Showers and storms move through from west to east during the day
Wednesday with clearing behind a cold front late in the day.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions expected Wednesday night
through the weekend as drier air enters the region.


Short Term...Southerly flow develops over the Gulf of Maine
today and increases as a cold front approaches from the west.
Winds look like they will remain just under advisory levels
right up through the cold frontal passage Wednesday evening.

Long Term...Seas may be high enough to be near SCA thresholds 
Wednesday night along the outer waters.




NEAR TERM...Cempa/Kimble
LONG TERM...Cannon

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