Wednesday, November 14, 2018, 9:01 PM EST
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Area Forecast Discussion
||Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KGYX 140826
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
326 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018
Much colder air arrives today on a strong northwesterly wind
with gusts to near 40 mph expected. This cold air will stick
around through Thursday. The next coastal storm will arrive
late Thursday night continuing into Friday bringing snowfall to
parts of the region.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The storm system which brought widespread precipitation and the
first snow to many areas has ejected towards Prince Edward
Island. High pressure covering much of the central CONUS will
shift northeast today. The tight pressure gradient at the
surface as well as strong unidirectional flow aloft will allow
for good mixing and allow some of the stronger winds to reach
the surface. Winds have begun to increase across the region
with many sites already gusting to near 40 mph. A wind advisory
continues through 7 PM tonight for the entire area.
Outside of the brisk wind, skies will be clear to mostly sunny
for a few hours before additional cloud cover arrives with a
band of vorticity associated with troughing aloft. Temperatures
will only reach the teens north to the upper 20s/lower 30s
south under strong CAA today. 850mb temps will come close to
-20C across the mountains and foothills. A few lingering snow
flakes are possible early on for the highest peaks.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
High pressure passes overhead tonight, and will help contribute
to one of the coldest night of the year. Expect single digits
across the north with teens closer to the coast. Winds will have
largely diminished, but still expected some AOB 10 mph or so.
High temperatures Thursday will rebound into the 20s areawide
with a few 30s near the coast. Winds come around to the
southwest finally late Thursday as a strong southern stream
short wave triggers secondary cyclogenesis off the Delmarva
Peninsula. Most of the precipitation will hold off for northern
sections until Friday, but southern NH and southwest ME will see
snow begin to fall evening.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The deterministic model solutions are in decent agreement on the
long wave pattern through early next week. We begin the period
with a potent shortwave over the lower Mississippi Valley that
quickly goes negative tilt as it races north to the Bay of Fundy
by Friday evening. At the surface...a developing coastal low
will track northeast from the Carolina's to eastern New England by
Friday evening. Warm air advection precipitation in advance of
the low will breakout across the forecast area from south to north
during the predawn hours of Friday. With cooling at precipitation
onset...most locations should start as snow or sleet. We'll chip
away at the cold air along the coastal plain during the day...and
see a transition from frozen to liquid. At this juncture...mixing
and model QPF is suggesting advisory versus warning criteria
snowfall across much of the area late Thursday night into Friday.
It should make for a tricky morning commute in many locations.
Precipitation quickly tapers from southwest to northeast during
the afternoon as the surface low and upper support exits into the
maritimes. In the wake of this system...a broad upper trough
across the eastern two thirds of the CONUS. Weak impulses
embedded in the flow will drive a series of weak surface systems
across the area accompanied by clouds and limited moisture. These
weak systems will in turn offer several reinforcing shots of
cold air to the region for the period...as our below normal
temperature regime continues.
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR through today and tonight. Areas of MVFR
conditions may persist in the mountains early on with scattered
Fri...IFR with areas of LIFR in RA,PL,SN and fog. Sfc wind gusts
to 25 kt.
Sat...Sct MVFR in mtn -shsn.
Short Term...A tight NW pressure gradient combined with very
cold air advection over the warm waters will cause an
acceleration of the winds over the waters surface and induce
strong northwest gales through this evening before diminishing.
Fri - Sat...SCA's likely...with Gale's psb outside the bays.
ME...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ007>009-
NH...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NHZ001>015.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ150>154.