Thursday, January 18, 2018, 11:07 AM EST
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Area Forecast Discussion
||Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCTP 171735
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1235 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018
High pressure will build into the region this afternoon through
Thursday, bringing clearing skies but cold temperatures.
Temperatures will moderate to near normal Friday, then climb
into the 40s or about 10 degrees above normal over the upcoming
weekend with mainly dry weather continuing.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some lingering flurries are falling over the western higher
elevations where satellite shows some low clouds that look very
thin in the high resolution GOES R visuals.
Strong, deep-layer subsidence beneath left entrance region of a
SW upper jet will combine with a light-moderate westerly
surface flow of much drier air to bring clearing and several
hours of sunny skies to the Central Mountains this afternoon.
Overcast skies in the east will gradually improve as ceilings rise
above 100,000' during the afternoon with some sunshine later in
Ensemble mean 925mb temps of around -13C support highs this
afternoon ranging from the mid teens across the Western
Mountains, to the mid 20s over the Susq Valley.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Periods of strato cu and brief flurries will linger across The
Western Mtns early tonight, with just some sct-bkn alto cu
clouds afterward across much of the CWA.
Low temps tonight will vary from near 5 above zero across the
perennial cold spots of the NW Mtns, to the low to mid teens
across the Southern Valleys of PA.
Mostly sunny skies will occur Thursday with temperatures
rebounding to near or slightly below normal. Westerly sfc
flow will freshen during this short term period, and will gust
between 20-25 mph tonight (mainly over the western mtns). Gust
potential will increase to 30 to 35 mph Thursday across Central
and Western parts of the CWA as high pressure builds over the
Lower Ohio Valley and SE States, while a strong North- South
pressure gradient resides across the Midwest, Great Lakes
Region, and Upper Ohio Valley into PA.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The medium range will feature a fairly long period of dry-
tranquil weather with soon to moderating temperatures.
A milder westerly flow will develop to close out the week as a
surface high slides along the Gulf coast toward the SERN US.
By Friday...WSW flow will push daytime highs above freezing
over most of the forecast area, and temperatures are expected to
continue to creep upward into the weekend. Temperatures by the
weekend will be well above normal under the building eastern
The next chance for precipitation looks to not be until later
Saturday into the overnight with a surge of warm advection that
is made to develop with the approach a warm front that should
slide up to our west into NY state. The chance of showers
favoring mainly western areas will continue through Sunday.
There is remarkably good agreement at this range in dragging a
significant cold front through the area Monday afternoon or
evening. The GEFS takes the best PWAT anomaly up through the
eastern lakes mainly west of the CWA and right now shows a
generally light-moderate rain event. Of course any kind of
warmup accompanied by rain will create ice-jam and flooding
concerns so that looks to be the next big threat moving
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There is some lingering MVFR/IFR over my western higher
elevation terminals with even some very light snow causing
visibilities under 2 miles at JST. Drier air will limit the
extent of the low clouds moving out of the mountains, but these
high elevation sites may be stubborn to improve despite an
overall fair weather pattern.
It will become breezy, especially over the SE with gusts in the
10-20 mph range.
Thu...Mainly VFR. Breezy.
The threat of ice jamming is diminishing. Dry and colder
weather into mid week will form additional ice as stream flows
and open channels decrease. Another warm up is expected by the
end of the week into the weekend with rain to accompany a
frontal system early next week.
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Lambert
LONG TERM...La Corte/Lambert