Sunday, July 22, 2018, 8:11 PM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KILN 221751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
151 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

A low pressure system will move slowly south across the Ohio 
Valley today, continuing the threat for showers and
thunderstorms. Although the weather system will weaken, its
influence will remain across the region through at least mid 
week. This will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in 
the forecast. Cooler than normal temperatures will moderate into
the week.


An axis of showers is rotating very slowly across southern 
portions of our area late this morning. This is associated with 
an upper level low that is drifting very slowly southward and an
axis of low level convergence. This axis will continue to rotate
counter clockwise as we head into this afternoon and should 
allow for a better chance of pcpn to work northward across 
eastern portions of our fa. Elsewhere, we should also see an 
overall increase in coverage as we begin to get some diurnal 
heating, as well as a chance for some embedded thunderstorms. 
Will range pops from chance across the northwest to categorical
in the southeast. temperatures so far have struggled to warm 
much so will make some minor downward tweaks in the near term.


For tonight, the entire weather system will continue to weaken 
and elongate in a more north to south orientation. With the loss
of diurnal heating, showers and a few thunderstorms will
diminish. For the overnight period, a chance of showers will
continue, mainly over the eastern two thirds of the CWFA. Clouds
will remain. Lows will range from the lower to mid 60s.

On Monday, a weakening/elongated mid level trough will remain, 
while an inverted surface trough bisects our region. With 
diurnal heating, a chance of showers and thunderstorms will peak
during the mid to late afternoon, with the threat greatest 
across the east. Temperatures will range from the upper 70s to
the lower 80s.


This period will start with a persistent trough in the upper 
atmosphere, resulting in unsettled weather and near to slightly below
normal temperatures. 

For Monday night and Tuesday, a sharp but shallow upper trough will 
be positioned from the Great Lakes, across Ohio, all the way to the 
Gulf of Mexico. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will
continue, favoring the mid to late afternoon hours.

Lower chances for showers and thunderstorms are indicated for 
Wednesday when the upper trough is forecast to fill in and the flow 
becomes more zonal bringing drier air into the end of the week. 

Models indicating another active pattern by late Saturday into 
Sunday with convective activity but with some timing differences 
will keep pops low for Saturday for now.  

Temperatures reaching around 80 Monday will rise the near normal mid 
80s by Thursday, before retreating slightly to the lower 80s on 
Friday and Saturday.


Surface low pressure is centered over south central Ohio early
this afternoon with scattered showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms rotating around it. Coverage is expected to 
slowly fill in somewhat as we continue to get some daytime 
heating. The best chances for pcpn appear to be along and 
southeast of the I-71 corridor TAF sites through the rest of 
this afternoon. Thunder chances appear to be fairly low so will 
just hang on to a vcts to cover that threat into early evening.
Pcpn coverage should gradually decrease after sunset although 
it will be tough to rule out a few showers through the rest of 
the night.

MVFR cigs across the area have slowly been lifting into VFR and
this trend should continue over the next hour or two. MVFR cigs
will then return late this evening with IFR cigs then likely 
redeveloping later tonight into Monday morning. These lower 
cigs will then persist through much of the morning hours before 
gradually improving toward the tail end of the TAF period. 

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times, mainly during the 
afternoon and evening, Monday through Wednesday.




SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Coniglio

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