Tuesday, October 17, 2017, 2:49 PM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KILN 171056
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
656 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region through the week. 
Dry conditions and slowly moderating temperatures can be
expected through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clear skies and light to calm winds early this morning will lead
to patchy/areas of frost. Frost advisory will continue for our
eastern zones until 10 am EDT/14Z. SPS for patchy frost west has
been updated. 

High pressure will extend across the region today. Only FEW- 
SCT cirrus is expected. Under a south/southwest flow and mostly
sunny skies, temperatures will warm into the lower and mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will continue across the region into Wednesday.
Clear skies tonight and sunny skies on Wednesday are expected.
Lows tonight will dip into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Some
patchy frost may be possible across the eastern zones. Highs on
Wednesday will moderate into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A sprawling and very dry area of high pressure will stretch all the 
way from the northeastern states to Texas through much of the 
extended forecast period. Aside from a very weak cold front 
attempting to make it into the southern Great Lakes / northern Ohio 
Valley on Thursday night, there will be little change in the pattern 
through Saturday. Low-level warm advection, with gradually 
increasing 925mb temps, will allow for a gradual rise in 
temperatures through Friday.

By Saturday, the overall pattern will begin to get more amplified, 
as mid-level ridging over the southeastern states becomes more 
pronounced. Because of this, there is some potential for 
temperatures on Saturday to be a little warmer than currently 
forecast, though even now the going expectation is for it to be the 
warmest day of the entire forecast period.

On Sunday, a sharp but narrow trough will begin its progression 
eastward across the Mississippi Valley, eventually reaching the Ohio 
Valley at some point between then and Monday. Model timing agreement 
is not excellent with this system, though there has been some 
improvement with the 00Z runs as the ECMWF has come in with a faster 
solution -- though still slower than the 18Z/00Z GFS. PoPs will be 
kept in the chance range until this really gets locked in a little 
better. As of now, the greatest precipitation chances appear to be 
during the Sunday night forecast period. Once the trough and its 
associated cold front pass through the area, there appears to be 
potential for a larger upper trough to move into the Great Lakes 
late on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
River valley fog will burn off between 12Z and 14Z.

Otherwise, surface high pressure will extend across the region
through the TAF period. FEW-SCT cirrus can be expected today
along with an increase in wind from the south/southwest due to 
an increase in the surface pressure gradient and diurnal mixing.

For tonight, clear skies will prevail once again. Winds will 
diminish between 22Z and 00Z. River valley fog will be a 
concern once again after 06Z Wednesday with VLIFR expected at
KLUK.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ045-046-
     054>056-063>065-073-074-080>082-088.
KY...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ100.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Hickman

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