Tuesday, July 17, 2018, 1:22 AM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KRLX 170244
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1044 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses Tuesday. High pressure Wednesday through 
Thursday. Low pressure Friday through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1045 PM Monday...With the sun setting, shower and storm
activity has decreased across the region. Have adjusted PoP
lower overnight and into early tomorrow morning, but haven't
changed much for after sunrise tomorrow. Still think that shower
activity will increase again tomorrow with the passing of the
front, so have left forecast as is for now.  

As of 651 PM Monday...Updated PoP based on current radar and
timing of the front through tomorrow morning.    

As of 212 PM Monday...

Showers and storms continue to develop/move across the forecast
area early this afternoon. PWAT values are quite high. So heavy
rain is possible with the stronger storms. Expect these storms 
will continue into the early evening hours before decreasing. 

Additional storms are possible tonight as a cold front approaches
from the northwest. The front is expected to push into our 
southeast Ohio counties around midnight and then be located near
a MGW-CRW-JKL line around sunrise. The front and associated
storms should then continue pushing southeast and exit the area
by late tomorrow. 

Will continue to monitor portions of Randolph, Pocahontas, and 
Webster counties for possible water issues as the ground there
is still nearly saturated. 

Tweaked previous temperature forecasts to reflect latest
guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Monday...

A cold front will exit the region Tuesday night ending the
showers and thunderstorms. Relatively cool and dry high 
pressure will build in behind the front and will be in control 
through Thursday night. Temperatures will be seasonal with lower
RH values the forecast period. Great time to get out and enjoy
the weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 AM Monday...

High pressure gradually shifts northeastward Friday allowing 
southerly winds and moisture to advect back into the region.
This will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms each
day through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 PM Monday...

Showers and storms will be possible during the overnight hours
with a cold front pushing into the region. Although there may be
some IFR restrictions from the showers/storms, it will have to 
be handled with amendments due to their scattered nature.  

EKN may see some valley fog develop due to the wet antecedent
conditions due to showers earlier today, but this will likely
depend on cloud cover overnight and when the next round of
convection enters the area with the front. Conditions should 
slowly improve as the cold front pushes through tomorrow morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of convection will
require possible amendments. Fog development is possible at all
sites that saw rainfall earlier today.  

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 07/17/18
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    L    L    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
Morning fog possible mid week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JS
NEAR TERM...JSH/MPK
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...MPK

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