Friday, August 17, 2018, 10:53 PM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
||Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCTP 180236
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1036 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018
A weakening front will keep showers across the region overnight.
An upper- level disturbance will linger on Saturday and keep
the region unsettled.
Slightly cooler conditions and more comfortable humidity will move
in for the second half of the upcoming weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Slow moving upper trof swinging into western PA and the
Fingerlakes overnight will keep scattered showers going for much
of the overnight. Several shortwaves traverse central and
northern PA as the parent trof approaches. Lows will be in the
muggy 60s to lower 70s overnight.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The slow moving upper trough will be crossing the region
Saturday. Blended MOS POPs yield high chance to low likely
values for yet another day of scattered showers and
Highs will rise into the mid 70s to mid 80s, which will be near
to slightly below normal for a change.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Better day of weekend will be Sunday as area is a bit more
stable, but will not be pop free, as some showers and a
thunderstorm are possible during the afternoon hours. Drier
weather on Monday before southerly flow increases with a return
to more showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. A real cold frontal
passage is expected, likely on Wednesday, which will bring drier
air and even some lows into the 50s over a large area for the
first time in a long time. Before the frontal passage look for
an increase in thunderstorms. The end of the week will be drier
with temperatures at or a few degrees below average. Longer term
it looks like ridging builds back in for warmer weather by next
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 735 PM Friday...
Bulk of convection is decreasing across the area. However, isold
showers and thunderstorms, with brief MVFR/IFR conditions and
gusty winds will still be possible through roughly 03Z.
Otherwise, expecting widespread MVFR and local IFR stratus and
fog to develop, particularly after 06Z, with gradually improving
conditions to VFR after 14Z. After 15Z, expect an increase in
shower and thunderstorm activity again, with brief MVFR/IFR
conditions and gusty winds in vcnty of storms.
Light westerly to northwesterly winds outside of convection.
Sat...Still a chance of showers and storms, with MVFR/IFR
Sun- Mon...Mainly VFR, although isold convection possible mainly south.
Tue-Wed...Restrictions developing with showers and
thunderstorms. Improving later Wed.
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte