Tuesday, March 19, 2019, 11:23 PM EDT
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Area Forecast Discussion
Valid At
Wed, Dec 31, 7:00pm EST
FXUS61 KCTP 200238
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1038 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will assure fair weather will last into 
Wednesday. A frontal system approaching from the west and a  
coastal low sliding north along the Atlantic Seaboard will 
bring inclement weather Wednesday night into Friday. High 
pressure will return for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Just a few cumulus remnants leftover from this afternoon's
cumulus field across north central PA...these illuminated by the
nearly full "Worm Moon". Expect skies to go clear by midnight
there as well, with a tranquil cold night thanks to high
pressure overhead. Calm winds and good radiational
cooling/decoupling will lead to seasonably chilly lows 
overnight ranging through the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The surface high will move off the coast Wednesday. The
developing southerly wind on the western side of the anticyclone
will help push temperatures into the mid 40s to mid 50s. These 
numbers are pretty close to or even slightly above normal. Any
early high clouds could go away initially, but will likely 
increase/thicken from the west in the afternoon. Some cu may 
develop, too. The precip associated with the cold/occluded front
moving in from the west will likely stay off to the west until 
after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A potent upper shortwave will drive a front through the Gr Lakes
Wednesday night and Thursday. This will increase the chances for
some rain by Thursday morning with periods of rain likely during
the day. 

At least a couple of complicating factors to consider going
forward:

First is the potential for some snow over the NW early Thursday
where we will start the day near or even below freezing. High 
temps will rebound into the 40s over the north so no sig 
accumulation is expected.

Second and potentially more important, the 12z models continue
trend of a potent low developing along the Mid Atlantic coast 
with impacts stretching back into the SERN portion of the CWA 
with a significant QPF event. The NAM continues to be the
wettest, with other models producing nearly 1 inch of QPF. The 
NAM even generates some heavy snow on the WRN edge of the precip
shield in the marginally cold airmass. The ECMWF and ECENS have
less rain and are not nearly as aggressive with the snow. At 
this stage I chose to use a blend of model POPs and downplayed 
the snow/QPF potential, though some high terrain snowfall is not
out of the question over the northeast. 

A secondary cold front will cross the area Friday which will 
bring a reinforcing shot of colder air along with some late
season mountain snow showers. Breezy conditions will also
develop with gusts to 30-40 mph possible.

High pressure will build in for the weekend with warmer days 
and cool nights. Temps will be remain below normal Friday and 
Saturday, but will warm significantly Sunday and Monday climbing
into the 60s many areas through central PA and across the 
south. Warmer trend looks to last into the 8-14 day period.

Spring officially begins at 5:58PM on Wednesday 3/20.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Clouds mainly gone now for the late evening update.

Earlier discussion below.

For the 00Z TAF package, VFR conditions will prevail
tonight into Wednesday, as high pressure remains over the
area.

The approach of a frontal system from the west and a separate 
coastal low sliding northward up the Atlantic Coast will put the
squeeze on Central PA for Wed night and Thursday. Rain is 
likely everywhere, but the higher elevations could have snowfall
or at least rain mixed with snow later Wed night and early 
Thurs. 

.Outlook...

Wed night...-SN/-RA NW. Rain poss by sunrise SE. Reductions to
MVFR likely NW, and poss SE.

Thu...RA SE, RA/SN NW. +RA poss SE. MVFR with IFR possible NW 
and SE, but mainly VFR central.

Fri...Becoming windy. AM low cigs/SHSN NW.

Sat...Gusty NW wind. Otherwise, no sig wx.

Sun...No sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...La Corte/RXR
AVIATION...Martin

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